Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 11 Aug 2025, 16:29

Today's Perspective Video: Trump's Social Post Spurs Commodity Speculation

August 11 - President Trump still has not signed off on a deal reached between U.S. and Chinese negotiators roughly two weeks ago that would extend the suspension of reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs another 90 days. The current deal to suspend the higher rates was reached on May 11, with an expiration date of midnight tonight. President Trump was asked about whether he would extend the deadline earlier today, and he responded, "We'll see what happens." This comes on the heels of his social media post this morning challenging China to "quadruple" its purchases of U.S. soybeans, raising speculation that perhaps negotiations are ongoing about a commodity trade deal with China, and perhaps he is using the August 12 tariff deadline as leverage. It remains possible that we could see a commodity trade deal, although I remain skeptical until I see the soybeans - and possibly corn, wheat, energy - flowing again in large volumes.

The tech sector firmed to fresh record highs this morning, while the Dow components slipped modestly lower. The VIX continues to trade below 16 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.27%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.76%. Crude oil prices are trading either side of unchanged today, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher, led by soybean prices that are more than 2% higher at midday. Soybean traders remain skeptical of a deal with China, but can't take the risk that the president might pull off a deal. End users have some incentive to add coverage, just in case a deal is reached, while speculative traders have some incentive to cover short positions. The focus is otherwise on tomorrow's USDA WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time. The primary focus will be on USDA's domestic corn and soybean yields, potential changes to U.S. and Black Sea wheat production, and potential increases in U.S. corn and soybean export targets for the current marketing year that ends on August 31. We could potentially see more modest adjustments to South American corn and soybean production as well, but I don't expect any market-moving changes there.

USDA inspected 58.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending August 7, as shown below, along with 19.0 million bushels of soybeans, 13.4 million bushels of wheat, and 2.7 million bushels of grain sorghum. Both the wheat and grain sorghum shipments keep us relatively close to the pace needed to hit USDA's target for the current marketing year, although strong wheat sales suggest some upside risk - meaning that final wheat exports could exceed USDA's current target if we maintain this strength deeper into the wheat marketing year. It's a different story though for corn and soybeans, which are both approaching the end of their marketing years on August 31. Not all shipments are inspected, per trade agreements, but it will probably be late September or early October before we have official shipments. Nonetheless, marketing year to date corn export inspections total 2.485 billion bushels, up 558 million bushels or 29% from the previous year's pace. That total also exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 85 million bushels if uninspected shipments are similar to previous years. That would argue for another 50 million bushel or more increase in USDA's old-crop corn export target tomorrow. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.777 billion bushels, up 183 million bushels or 12% from the previous year's pace, and 44 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Again, that argues for another increase in USDA's old crop soybean export target of at least 20 million bushels tomorrow, assuming that non-inspected shipments are similar to previous years.

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