Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 17 Aug 2026, 17:08

Today's Perspective Video: War, Weather & WASDE

August 17 - The major stock indices were generally weaker at midday in relatively quiet trade. Meanwhile, the energy and grain and oilseed markets found good support from war risk today - wars in both the Middle East and the Black Sea. The VIX is trading near 15, while the dollar index trades near 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.71%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $89 per barrel. Soyoil prices pulled soybeans higher with sunflower oil shipments out of the Black Sea curtailed due to the war. Corn prices firmed on strong export demand and weaker yield risks.

The Empire State manufacturing index posted its strongest level in four years today with a reading of 20.6, up another five points on the month. New orders and shipments posted gains, along with a strong increase in unfilled orders and delivery times, while inventories dropped. Employment levels and the average work week both rose modestly this month as well. This is reflective of the solid manufacturing resurgence that we are seeing in the economy. Other data saw the housing market index rise to 35 in August, up from 34 last month, and up from 32 a year ago, but still low overall. Current single family sales bumped a point higher to 42, leading to the increase, while the six month outlook and buyer traffic both remained flat on the month.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour is midway through Day #1 of walking muddy fields and posting pictures on social media. The focus thus far has been on lower yield potential from the previous year for both the eastern and western legs of the tour, highlighting soggy fields, drowned out spots, wind damage and increased disease potential. That's not a surprise, but it helps underpin prices at a time when demand is strong. Even so, one observer noted the slow maturity of the crops on the eastern leg of the tour, noting that this month's weather can still notably impact yields.

USDA inspected 75.2 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending August 13 - a strong showing for August when South America is exporting new crop supplies. Brazil's ethanol boom continues to limit its exports, but Argentina stated today that it set a new record for any month in July by exporting more than 200 million bushels (5.14 mmt) during the month. The Rosario Board of Trade puts this year's Argentine corn crop at 70.5 mmt (2.775 billion bushels), up from USDA at 63 mmt, and up from last year's crop of 49 mmt. That makes today's U.S. export number even more impressive, as South American exports typically cut into demand for U.S. corn this time of year. Soybean inspections slipped to just 9.9 million bushels last week, but the market is more focused now on Chinese buying for the new marketing year that starts September 1. Wheat export inspections last week were a solid 18.1 million bushels.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 216.647 million bushels of soybeans in July. That suggests that total crush that includes some non-member activity should come to near 220.2 million bushels. That would leave 215.7 million bushels for August total crush in order to hit USDA's current target. We can reach that, but we might fall just short as processors struggle to find enough soybeans to crush, and so they start fall down time for maintenance. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.360 billion pounds on July 31, the lowest since last October and down 9.4% from the 1.501 billion pounds on hand a month earlier. The incentive to crush is there where physically possible.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 26

August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 13:31

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