Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 23 Aug 2022, 15:40

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

August 23 - Stocks are holding their ground surprisingly well this morning despite pessimistic economic data being released. The major indexes are mixed, with the Dow Jones in the red while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 remain in the green, though all are trading relatively close to unchanged at the time of writing. The VIX is holding near 23.8 after its recent rise, while the dollar falls to trade near 108.3. Yields on 10-year treasuries are trading just under 3%, while yields on 2-year treasuries are trading just under 3.25%. Crude oil is up sharply, with nearby WTI pushing to a new high since early August but falling back slightly to trade slightly under $94/barrel. Grains are sharply higher on a combination of declining crop conditions on yesterday afternoon's USDA Crop Progress report and negative initial reports from this week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

Housing sector woes continued today, with U.S. new home sales in July coming in at an annualized rate of only 511,000. Analysts expected to see a slight drop from June, but this 12.6% month-on-month reduction was considerably lower than the anticipated reading of 575,000. Although multiple economic indicators have suggested a silver lining to current conditions, the housing sector in the U.S. has continued to disappoint. July's data represents the lowest level of new home sales in the U.S. since January 2016. This is now the sixth monthly decline in seven months of 2022, marking a 39.1% drop from December's relative peak of 839,000 as the impact of rapidly rising interest rates, bruising inflation, and recession fears take their toll.

S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite PMI for August also disappointed this morning, coming in at 45.0, a decline of 2.7 points from July's 47.7 reading. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction. This was the second consecutive month of contraction for the first time since the initial pandemic fallout in late winter/spring of 2020. Excluding the contractions seen in 2020, today's reading would be the lowest level seen in the U.S. since 2009. The U.S. services sector was hit hard, with the Flash U.S. Services PMI coming in at only 44.1, a sizeable drop from the 47.3 reading seen in July. The U.S. manufacturing sector's readings were comparatively better, though still not optimistic. The U.S. Manufacturing Output Index showed a second-consecutive month of contraction, coming in at 49.3 vs. the 49.5 reading seen in July. However, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained slightly in expansion territory at 51.3, though it did fall from the prior month's 52.2 to reach its lowest level since the pandemic doldrums of 2020.

Kyiv is on alert this week with U.S. intelligence suggesting that Russia could be planning renewed attacks on the capital to coincide with Ukraine's Independence Day, as Russia has reportedly been building up supplies of missiles in Belarus of recent. These fears caused the Ukrainian government to ban Independence Day celebrations in Kyiv in order to avoid the risk of crowds being targeted, while the U.S. today urged its citizens within the country to leave. Tomorrow marks 31 years of Ukraine's independence from Soviet rule, as well as the six month mark in the ongoing war that drags on in a grinding attrition phase.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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