Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 26 Aug 2025, 16:57

August 26 – Stocks have rebounded and moved back into the green at mid-day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher while the VIX remains subdued below the 15 level. The stock market has plenty to digest this week, with the tech sector keeping a close eye on tomorrow’s earnings report from Nvidia, while a plethora of economic data is on tap in the days ahead as well, capped off on Friday by an update on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan and an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, PCE. The dollar is down slightly at mid-day, hovering around 98.16 at the time of writing after initially trading higher overnight. Treasury yields are also in the red, with 10-year yields at 4.26% and 2-year yields at 3.68%. Crude oil prices have wiped out yesterday’s gains, with the nearby WTI contract down by over 2% at the time of writing to trade near the $63.40 level, while the ags are narrowly mixed.

U.S. consumer confidence beat expectations in August, according to this morning’s release from the Conference Board. The reading came in at 97.4, well above consensus estimates of a drop to 96.2. July was revised upwards from its original 97.2 up to 98.7, meaning this morning’s reading would’ve been an improvement from the month prior if not for the upward revision, but does mark a decline from the now higher print. As with the more popular metric from the University of Michigan, Conference Board’s consumer confidence has rebounded notably after bottoming out at a nearly 5-year low of 86.0 in April amid the initial peak of tariff fears. Given the fact that domestic consumption accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, the improving confidence at the consumer level is certainly a welcomed sign for our economy.

Home prices in the U.S. are showing signs of slowdown, with this morning’s Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index falling 0.2% month-over-month in June, sharper than the -0.1% expected, while the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell by 0.3% month-over-month, also sharper than the -0.2% expected. In year-over-year terms, the FHFA Index showed 2.6% growth in June, down from 2.9% in May, while the Case-Shiller Index showed 2.1% growth, down from 2.8% in May. This marks the weakest rise in the FHFA Index since February 2012 and the weakest in the Case-Shiller Index since July 2023. A combination of high mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainty has kept many prospective buyers on the sidelines, leading to a rise in total U.S. housing inventories to their highest level since pre-pandemic. Home prices have held up better-than-expected throughout 2025 thus far, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on these readings moving forward as more signs of slowdown appear.

U.S. soybean ratings saw an unexpected 1% rise week-over-week, now back at 69% good/excellent versus market expectations of a dip to 67%. Given the dry stretch much of the U.S. soybean crop has seen in August, most notably in the eastern Midwest and Delta, it was a bit of a surprise to see soybean ratings return to where they sat to start the month. Regardless, this still represents the highest good/excellent ratings at this time for the U.S. soybean crop since 2020 and the highest condition index seen at this time since 2016.

Similarly, U.S. corn ratings outperformed expectations by holding steady at 71% good/excellent, maintaining the highest for that metric and also the condition index at this time since 2016, keeping expectations for fall harvest to be massive. Said harvest will be upon us before we know it, with the nation’s corn crop pegged at 7% mature on yesterday’s report while 4% of soybeans were dropping leaves. This brings the demand side of the equation more and more into focus, with corn export demand remaining red hot but the elephant in the room being where all these soybeans will go if no agreement is reached with China before combines start rolling in the Midwest. Exports to China are traditionally our top outlet for soybeans during and right after harvest, but we still officially have zero bushels sold to them at this point, leading cumulative ‘25/’26 soybean export sales to lag last year by 22.4% and the previous 5-year average sales pace by 58.7%. China’s top negotiator, Li Chenggang, reportedly coming to the U.S. for trade talks this week is certainly a step in the right direction, but no major breakthroughs are expected, meaning we’ll need to continue monitoring the situation closely.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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