Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 28

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 28 Aug 2025, 15:21

August 28 – Stocks are mixed at mid-day, with the Nasdaq pushing higher while the Dow Jones falls and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle around unchanged. Meanwhile, the VIX continues to cool, touching the lowest level of 2025 thus far at 14.12 before rising slightly to hang around 14.3 at the time of writing. The dollar is on track for its third consecutive losing session, falling back below the 98 level for the first time since Monday. Treasury yields have reversed course, with 10-year yields falling today to trade near 4.22% while 2-year yields rise to 3.64% after probing to fresh four-month lows yesterday. Crude oil has traded both sides of unchanged this morning, with nearby WTI hanging around unchanged near the $63.80 level at the time of writing. The ags are mostly lower, with Minneapolis wheat the lone green on the screen on the grain side while feeder cattle and lean hogs rise as well.

Pending home sales in the U.S. fell by 0.4% month-over-month in July, an improvement from the -0.8% seen in June but missing analyst estimates of a more notable improvement to -0.1%. This is the first time seeing back-to-back monthly declines since December/January, another highlight of the potential slowdown in the U.S. housing market after seeing softening price data earlier this week. Regionally speaking, the biggest decline was seen in the Midwest (-4.0%), followed by the Northeast (-0.6%), and South (-0.1%). These declines offset the 3.7% month-on-month rise seen in the West. In this morning’s release, National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that “even with modest improvements in mortgage rates, housing affordability, and inventory, buyers still remain hesitant.”

The divergence between new crop corn and soybean export demand continues to grow, with the ‘25/’26 marketing year officially beginning next week. This morning’s Export Sales report from USDA showed the biggest week of ‘25/’26 soybean sales thus far in the marketing year at 50.4 million bushels (mbu), but this still isn’t enough to prevent us from falling further behind typical sales paces due to the ongoing absence of Chinese purchases. Cumulative ‘25/’26 soybean sales now total only 266 mbu, down 28.3% from the same time last year and a further 53.7% below the previous 5-year average pace at this time. The U.S. officially has zero bushels of soybeans sold to China at this point—for context, we had 106.34 mbu sold to China at this point last year, and the previous 5-year average at this time is 344.52 mbu. With China filling up on Brazil’s record soybean supplies, the outlook for our typical dominance during the harvest window continues to dim, putting more importance on the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China, as well as our domestic biofuel policy moving forward.

It’s a polar opposite story for corn, with the 82.3 mbu of weekly new crop sales bringing our cumulative ‘25/’26 total to 739 mbu, double last year’s sales at this time and continuing to narrow the gap with 2021’s record pace, now trailing by roughly 20 mbu (or -2.7%). What’s more impressive is the fact that this demand comes with zero bushels sold to China, who was by far the top buyer driving this record pace four years ago. Instead, we’re seeing massive demand from a wide range of traditional top destinations, namely Mexico, who was also this week’s top buyer at roughly 24.4 mbu.

On the supply side of the ledger, this morning’s updated Drought Monitor showed 11% of U.S. soybean areas now experiencing some level of drought, up notably from the miniscule 3% seen at the start of the month. It’s been a dry August for much of the U.S., most notably in the Eastern Midwest and Delta, which marks a major reversal of course following one of the wettest July’s on record. With August widely considered as the most important month of development for the U.S. soybean crop, it will be interesting to keep an eye on how much (if at all) yield expectations are trimmed as private estimates are released in the lead-up to USDA’s September supply and demand report (9/12 @ 11:00 AM Central). Cool temperatures have likely offset some of the impact, and forecasts are calling for them to largely remain well below average through the next 10 days. Storm systems are moving through some of the dry portions of both the Delta and Eastern Midwest today, with forecasts keeping an active pattern throughout the next two weeks. With the calendar turning to September next week, it won’t be long before we start seeing harvest activity pick up in southern portions of the Midwest, giving us a better idea of the size of the U.S. crops.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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