Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 08 Aug 2022, 16:45

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 8 - Wall Street remains cautiously upbeat at midday, while keeping an eye on Chinese aggression near Taiwan, and while anticipating improved inflation numbers later this week. The VIX Is trading near 22 at midday, while the dollar index is notably lower near 106.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.76%. Crude oil prices are up by more than 1%, while the Ags are mixed to weaker at midday.

Wheat prices led the Ags higher following the pause this morning on reports that India may scrap its 40% import duty on wheat to cool record high domestic prices. That could have significant implications for the global wheat balance sheet. Spot corn and soybean contracts also traded in the green this morning on renewed export demand, while the deferred contracts remained primarily in the red following weekend rains. Those rains were more intense with greater coverage than anticipated, but they also missed some of the driest areas of the Midwest. This market is struggling to decide whether the proverbial glass is half full or half empty. USDA isn't expected to answer that question with its crop report on Friday. Instead, we'll likely need to wait until September and October when we learn more about seed size, and its impact on yields. The bigger chance for a surprise on Friday, if there is one, would be a decline in corn planted acres in Minnesota and the Dakotas following USDA's July resurvey. Meanwhile, the week ahead looks mostly dry for the western Midwest, albeit with more moderate temperatures to start the week before warming up again.

USDA inspected 31.9 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending August 4, as shown in the graphic below, along with 22.2 million bushels of wheat, 21.9 million bushels of corn and 2.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. The weekly shipment number for soybeans represented a four-month high, while the corn total was an 11-month low. The wheat shipment total for last week was the highest in 10 months. The portion of the above loaded onto ships destined for China included 9.2 million bushels of soybeans, 8.2 million bushels of corn, 2.1 million bushels of grain sorghum and 0.05 million bushels of wheat. Soybean shipments to China definitely picked up, but non-China shipments were even more impressive last week.

Weekly USDA corn inspections continue to lag the seasonal pace for this time of year, but that's largely been offset by shipments that have not been inspected that shows up in the Census data. That data is delayed by about six weeks, but it shows marketing year to date corn shipments that are more than 295 million bushels above USDA's inspection totals. That keeps us on pace to possibly exceed USDA's target when the marketing year ends on August 31. Shipments need to average 22.4 million bushels per week through the end of the month to hit USDA's current target. Soybean shipments exceed USDA inspections by nearly 54 million bushels. Weekly shipments need to average 29.2 million bushels to hit USDA's target. We exceeded that last week with 31.9 million bushels, but shipments had only been average 16.5 million per week prior to last week's big total. As such, we still may see a modest downward adjustment in old-crop exports. We're a little over two months into the new wheat marketing year, with year-to-date shipments falling short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 24 million bushels.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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