Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for December 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 19 Dec 2025, 17:32

December 19 – Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note, with the major indexes all in the green at mid-day as the tech-heavy Nasdaq leads the way higher. The VIX has also fallen to its lowest level of the week, currently hovering just below 15.4 at the time of writing. The dollar has risen to its highest level since last Thursday, trading near 98.65 after dipping as low as 97.87 earlier in the week. Treasuries are also in the green at mid-day, with 10-year yields nearing the 4.15% level while 2-year yields trade around 3.485%. Crude oil is now up on the day after trading lower overnight, with fresh Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets both within Russia’s borders and at sea bringing some buying interest forward despite the ongoing heavy fundamentals, as nearby WTI trades close to 1% higher on the day near $56.50/barrel. The ags are once again quietly mixed, with some of the wheat complex attempting to make small gains, potentially also seeing tailwinds from these fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine, while the livestock sector is mostly higher ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report.

U.S. consumer sentiment was revised lower in this morning’s final December reading from the University of Michigan, with the headline index falling to 52.9 from the initial 53.3 reported, missing market expectations of a slight tick higher to a 53.4 reading. This is still an improvement from the nearly three-and-a-half-year low seen in October, but relatively soft compared to last December’s 74 as well as recent summer highs in the low 60’s. The Current Economic Conditions portion of the index fell to 50.4 from December’s initial 50.7 reading, down from 51.1 in November and marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline that now puts the subindex at its lowest level on record. The Consumer Expectations portion was revised down to 54.6 from the initial 55.0, though this still represents a notable improvement from the 51.0 seen in November and marks the best reading for the subindex since August.

Consumer inflation expectations did improve in December, with year-ahead expectations rising from their initial 4.1% reading to a 4.2% final but still marking a notable decline from 4.5% in November and representing the lowest one-year consumer inflation expectations since January. Five-year inflation expectations held steady at 3.2%, also marking an improvement from 3.4% in November and also representing a low since January. We were supposed to get an updated look at inflation with November PCE today, but the Personal Income and Outlays report has been delayed to next Tuesday (12/23). Yesterday’s unexpectedly low CPI number brought some initial optimism, though the realization of how little data was actually included in the calculations due to the ongoing impact of the government shutdown did throw some cold water on that excitement.

U.S. existing home sales rose 0.5% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.13M in November, slightly below analyst estimates of a larger rise to 4.15M but still marking a third consecutive monthly increase and the highest print seen since February. October was also revised slightly higher to 4.11M from the 4.10M originally reported. Regionally speaking, November’s increase was driven by a 4.1% month-on-month rise in the Northeast and 1.1% rise in the South offsetting flat sales in the West and a 2.0% decline in the Midwest. Increasing home sales have also begun cutting into inventory, falling 5.9% month-on-month to 1.43M units, which equates to 4.2 months of supply, the lowest level seen since March. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying “with distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.” Meanwhile, the median sales price fell 1.4% month-on-month to $409,200, the lowest level seen since March. This now represents a 5.4% decline from the all-time high set back in June at $432,700. Digging in by region, the strong sales in the Northeast were likely aided by the 4.5% month-on-month decline in the median selling price there, while prices in the Midwest and South held relatively steady, and the West saw a 0.9% monthly decline.

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