Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 02 Feb 2023, 15:14

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 2 - The tech sector led the way higher on Wall Street this morning after Meta announced a stock buy-back plan, and on optimism that the Fed is close to a pivot, despite it's argument to the contrary. The VIX is trading between 17 & 18 this morning, reflecting a lack of fear on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 101.6 as it rallies off fresh nine-month lows set earlier in the session. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.39%, rallying off earlier lows as well. Crude oil prices are 1% lower after yesterday's inventory report showed a rise in stocks. The grain and oilseed complex started the day higher, with positive money flow overnight. However, corn and wheat prices are struggling to stay in the green at mid-session as the dollar rallies, with contracts slipping into the red at this hour. Soybeans continue to hold modest gains on the Argentine drought and Brazil harvest delays that are currently translating into solid export demand.

Exporters sold 62.7 million old-crop and 6.4 million new-crop corn bushels in the week ending January 26, along with 27.0 million old- and 7.1 million new-crop soybeans, 4.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and 5.0 million old- and 1.2 million new-crop bushels of wheat. The past week's corn sales were probably most encouraging out of that list of commodities. The corn sales were highlighted by the sale of 16.7 million bushels to "unknown destinations." That leads to questions whether China is behind those purchases, trying to rebuild their reserves. We likely won't know until freight is arranged for the purchases. Ivy Li in our Shanghai office noted in yesterday's edition of China Direct that China's National Reserve plans to release 18 million metric tons of rice the remainder of this year as it focuses on preserving food supplies.

Why is that significant? It's significant because it released 43.85 mmt of rice last year, much of which ended up in the feed stream displacing corn. The sharp reduction in the availability of rice significantly increases the feed deficit, much of which must be made up by imports. Brazil will garner much of that business, but Chinese buyers may be getting a head start on the buying, particularly with Ukraine rapidly declining as a dependable source of corn for China. The graphic below shows how the week's total sales compared to the same week over the past quarter century. The first thing the eye sees is the massive 292.8 million-bushel sale of corn in the same week two years ago when China announced a massive package it had been putting together over the previous several months. Outside of that, the past week's corn export sales were the third highest of the past 25 years for the week. Even so, marketing year to date corn sales still fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 256 million bushels, versus being short by 261 million the previous week. We've dug a deep hole with sluggish corn sales this year, which will take a lot of unexpected demand to offset in the months ahead. I do think China will be a factor in that story. Otherwise, marketing year to date soybean export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 72 million bushels, up from 70 million the previous week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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