Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 17:20

February 20 – The Supreme Court ruled against the sweeping tariffs enacted by President Trump under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) this morning after months of anticipation. This will not be the end to the tariff saga, however, as this ruling does not cover all of the Trump administration’s new tariffs and market expectations are for Trump to pursue alternatives for keeping them in place, though these alternatives will likely not be as fast-acting as the IEEPA, which may lead to a dragged-out process in the future. President Trump is reportedly set to deliver a statement in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in the minutes ahead, set for 11:45 AM Central today. There are still plenty of questions to be answered as well, with today’s ruling not addressing whether or not companies could see refunds for the billions collectively paid in tariffs and a huge amount of litigation already in the works.

Regardless, the stock market welcomed the news, spiking in immediate response but losing some steam into midday with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 still in the green at the time of writing, though the Dow Jones is back slightly in the red. The VIX is also cooling notably, down a bit over 6% on the day to trade below the 19-mark. The dollar has traded both sides of unchanged today, tanking initially following the ruling but now rebounding to hover around the 97.8 level. Treasuries are slightly in the green, with 10-year yields trading at 4.09% and 2-year yields trading at 3.48%. Crude oil is taking a bit of a breather after back-to-back days of sharp gains that pushed nearby WTI to a fresh six-month high yesterday, falling back to trade around $66.25/barrel at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with soybeans seeing a sharp selloff in response to the tariff ruling on concerns of what this means for additional Chinese soybean purchases from the U.S., though they’ve rallied back notably to now hang just narrowly in the red while the wheat complex continues its push higher amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and weather concerns.

New home sales blew past expectations to close out 2025, with delayed data for both November and December released today as the Census Bureau finishes playing catch-up from previous shutdowns. November new home sales surged 15.5% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 758k units, the sharpest monthly growth seen since August 2022, before falling 1.7% month-on-month in December to an annualized rate of 745k, still well above the average analyst estimate of 730k and trailing only November for the second highest monthly sales since early 2022. Regionally speaking, the Midwest (+31.7%) led the surge followed by the West (+9.0%), while the South (-6.7%) and Northeast (-37.3%) saw declines. Despite the slight drop in December sales, new home inventories fell 2.7% month-on-month to 472k, representing a roughly 7.6-month supply at the current sales pace, which would be the tightest since July 2023. In turn, the median sales price for a new house in the U.S. rose to its highest since September at $414,400.

U.S. consumer sentiment appears to be stabilizing a bit to start 2026 after an ugly finish to 2025, with this morning’s release of final February readings from University of Michigan showing a mixed bag. Headline consumer sentiment was revised down slightly to 56.6 from the preliminary 57.3 reading, though that still marks an improvement from the 56.4 seen in January and the strongest print since August. Consumers’ perception of current economic conditions improved to 56.6 from 55.4 in January, the most optimistic view since October, while future expectations declined to 56.6 from the 57.0 seen in January.

Year-ahead consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.4% in the final February reading from the 3.5% preliminary, sharply below the 4.0% seen in January and marking the lowest since January 2025. It’s also worth pointing out that this is now down to roughly half of the recent peak of 6.6% seen back in May of last year. Longer-term (five-year) inflation expectations also fell 0.1% from their preliminary 3.4% to now sit at 3.3%, matching the month prior and also representing a notable correction from the peak of 4.4% made back in April. On a less rosy note, the director of the survey, Joanne Hsu, did point out that “about 46% of consumers spontaneously mentioned high prices eroding their personal finances,” the seventh consecutive month that reading has been above 40%.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

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