Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 06 Feb 2024, 16:59

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

February 6 - Stocks are now mixed at mid-day, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slightly in the green but the Nasdaq in the red at the time of writing. The VIX remains muted near 13.5, reflecting the relative sense of calm that remains on Wall Street. The dollar has reversed course from its morning strength, now in the red on the day as it trades just above the 104.1 level. Treasuries are also slightly in the red, with 10-year yields trading near 4.10% while 2-year yields hang below 4.42%. Crude oil is holding onto its morning gains, while the ags remain largely mixed.

The Johnson Redbook Index saw a sharp jump of 6.1% year-on-year in the week ending February 3rd, up from last week's 5% rise and reaching its highest weekly climb since late November. The Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales, using a sales-weighted approach for year-on-year same-store sales growth for a sample of U.S. retailers representing ~9,000 stores. The rise seen today could be a potential indicator of continued strength in U.S. retail sales, coinciding with the recent surge in consumer sentiment seen from both the University of Michigan and Conference Board readings in the last couple weeks. While the optimism is a sign of a strong economy, it also brings with it the potential for nagging inflation. If future retail sales data confirms that to be the case, it only reinforces the hawkish case for the Fed in holding rates higher for longer.

This morning's consumer sentiment data saw contrasting results, however, with the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index seeing a decline in February to 44.0, down from January's eight-month high of 44.7. The six-month outlook portion of the index saw a slight improvement, while the personal financial outlook and confidence in federal economic policies both saw declines, leading to the overall drop. It will now be interesting to watch additional consumer sentiment readings in the month ahead to see if this was a one-off dip or if we'll see similar shifts across the board. As alluded to above, the main focus of the market's reaction to upcoming data will be on how this impacts consumer spending and thus overall inflationary pressures that could lead to a more hawkish Fed. Traders are now reducing their bets on a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting significantly, with the odds at just over 20% after being close to a certainty at one point before the January meeting, and odds for a cut at the May meeting also down to only ~75%.

Total U.S. household debt rose by $212B in the fourth quarter of 2023 to reach a fresh record of $17.5 trillion. Of this total, $12.25B is mortgage debt, $1.607B auto loans, $1.601B student loans, $1.129B credit card loans, $360M revolving, and $554M other. The 1.23% quarter-on-quarter rise was a step back from the 1.34% jump in the third quarter of 2023 but still marks a notable increase from the 0.48% average seen in the first two quarters of the year. The biggest quarterly percentage jump was in the other category at 4.73%, while credit card debt followed closely with a 4.63% climb. While overall delinquencies are below pre-COVID levels, delinquencies on credit card and auto loans are both higher, at 8.5% and 7.7%, respectively, with total credit card and auto loan debt both setting new record highs in the fourth quarter. With American households taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt, the impact of high interest rates continues to be felt at the consumer level.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Grains & Oilseeds

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