Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 06 Feb 2026, 17:23

Today's Perspective Video: Major Internal China Policy Shift: What it Means for US Ag Exports

February 6 - Strong earnings reports continue to underpin Wall Street this week, with the Dow on the cusp of 50K. Iran says that talks with the U.S. in Oman were a "good start," and that they will continue, but weekend headline risk leaves oil traders nervous. The VIX is trading near 18 at midday, down from yesterday's spike above 23, while the dollar index trades near 97.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.22% as they recover from the late week break below 4.16%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%, as the yield curve pulls back a bit. Crude oil prices are 1.5% higher ahead of the weekend when headline risk will be the focus in the Middle East. The grain and oilseed sector is mostly lower at midday, with the exception of nearby soybeans and soymeal prices. The protein sector is higher today, with cattle futures notably higher correcting yesterday's selloff as traders recognize that a worker vote to authorize a strike at JBS's Greeley, Colorado plant is not the same as a vote to strike, with negotiations reportedly jumpstarted again.

The soybean complex continues to see the greatest volatility in the grain and oilseed sector, based on President Trump's comments about the possibility of China buying another 8 million metric tons of soybeans this year, along industry speculation that we may see the U.S. EPA submit its final guidelines for the biofuel program to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review as early as today. Speculators are buying, while Brazilian farmers are sellers. We're seeing some U.S. farmer selling on the rally as well, but most of his soybeans are already in the hands of the commercial operator.

To presell or to store? That's the question facing every farmer. Recently I provided a graphic showing the history in recent years of November soybeans versus the following July contract. Today I focus on corn. The graphic below shows the high for the December corn contract for each of the past 11 years. It then compares that with the high in the following July contract. The December contract would be the basis of forward pricing opportunities ahead of harvest, whereas the July contract high would provide some indication of post harvest selling opportunities for corn put into storage at harvest. Obviously, basis offers pre-harvest versus post harvest, as well as storage costs would also be a factor. But it at least provides a benchmark of comparison, with a bias toward pre-selling over the past 11 years. Every year is different, but history does provide perspective for those decisions.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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