Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 18:12

Today's Perspective Video: The White House Acknowledges Rare Earth Vulnerabilities

January 26 - Stocks were choppy today, trading both sides of unchanged ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend that will see most markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday. The VIX slipped back below 16, while the dollar index traded near six-week highs at 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.22%, representing a new four-month high after breaking through chart resistance near 4.2%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%. Crude oil prices are bouncing again as traders worry about possible weekend headlines during the holiday, while the grain and oilseed complex was mostly higher as well on solid end user buying on this week's price break.

The game of 3-D chess continues between China and the United States. We angered China yesterday when we signed a major trade deal with Taiwan. The economic aspects ruffle China's feathers enough, but the fact that we acknowledge Taiwan as a national entity to do a trade deal with is what really angers China. So, on the same day it signs a trade deal with our neighbor Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney made the first visit to China for a Canadian leader in a decade. China offered to reopen its markets to Canadian rapeseed if Carney would open the door for Chinese electric vehicles. I didn't think that Carney would risk angering the Canadian auto industry, but he did. In fact, comments by him posted on social media have him stating that this deal positions Canada well to be a part of the new world order - a new world order with China. Carney opened the door for significant Chinese investment in Canada's clean energy storage and production as well, along with its auto industry. That's sure to anger President Trump, creating more risks for the upcoming talks to update the U.S.M.C.A. trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, but it has also angered many leaders within Canada.

On a related note, the New World Screwworm was back in the headlines today after the Texas Ag Commissioner appeared on national television talking about the pest. The commissioner stated that the outbreaks in Mexico are caused by indigenous screwworm flies, and he warned U.S. beef producers and pet owners that its arrival across the U.S. border is "inevitable." That verbiage made the funds holding big long positions in cattle futures quite nervous ahead of a three day weekend, leading to a sharp selloff. Prices recovered a large portion of the losses this morning, but then turned weaker once again heading into midday.

USDA pegged the 2025 U.S. corn yield at a record 186.5 bushels per acre on Monday as U.S. production continues to outpace the rest of the world. The graphic below shows how U.S. corn yields continue to set the pace among the top exporters of the world, with Argentine corn yields actually trending lower in recent years, while Brazilian yields have stagnated somewhat. Both regions struggle with yield volatility created by adverse weather, while the statistics show the Midwest weather pattern shifting more favorable for corn yield relative to adverse temperature or drought, although damaging wind events are increasing in frequency.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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