Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 17:36

Today's Perspective Video: No Greenland Invasion & Soybean Export Math

January 22 - Stocks traded modestly higher as Greenland volatility calms, and on data showing solid consumer spending in October and November. The VIX traded near 15.5 at midday, after peaking near 21 on Tuesday, while the dollar index traded near 98.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.62% as the yield curve flattens a bit. Crude oil prices pulled back from yesterday's gains, while the grain and oilseed sector traded mixed to higher ahead of this weekend's Arctic blast of cold air, ice and snow across the winter wheat belt.

More details emerged today regarding the framework agreement over Greenland. The details are still being worked out, but it appears that the agreement gives the United States total access to Greenland, with NATO presence, to develop its Golden Dome defense system. Missiles can be placed in Greenland as part of the defense system that would offer protection to both Europe and the United States against possible threats from Russia and China. Language was also reportedly included that excludes China from being able to mine rare earth minerals in Greenland. The sovereignty of the world's largest island was reportedly not even discussed, as the primary objective was access to development of the Golden Dome defense system, and to keep China from accessing the rare earth minerals there.

Will the government shutdown again on January 30? The short answer is, maybe. Funding the government requires Congressional passage and the president's signature on 12 appropriation bills to cover the various sections of funding. This must happen before the fiscal year begins on October 1 to avoid interruption in services. That last happened in fiscal year 1996. It occurred again in fiscal '97, although after the deadline. Failure to do so results in the partial closure - nonessential services - of any of those 12 budget areas not passed. Since 1997, we've operated by passing big omnibus bills and/or continuing resolutions (CRs) to fund all or sections of the government.

The October shutdown in 2025 concluded with funding for four of the 12 areas through the remainder of the fiscal year, including USDA. The House of Representatives - where all budget bills must originate - passed four more in the following weeks, and hopes to pass the final four today to pass along to the Senate to consider next week. Any department not fully funded by January 30 (end of funding in the November CR) will result in a partial shutdown of those unfunded departments. It takes a majority vote in the House to pass an appropriations bill, but it takes 60 votes in the Senate to even bring the bill to the floor for an up or down vote. Republicans have 53 votes in the Senate, so they need at least 7 Democrats and/or Independents vote with them to bring a bill to the floor. Some observers believe that the Senate will pass the remaining eight appropriation bills by January 30, while others believe that the Senate will fail to get the 60 votes to move all of them to the floor for a vote, resulting in a partial shutdown. Regardless, no additional farm aid is currently in any of the bills, and E-15 ethanol legislation is not in any of them either. Both lacked needed support to risk putting them in the bills needing sufficient votes to pass.

Ethanol stocks rose to 25.7 million barrels in the week ending January 16, up from 24.5 million the previous week, but down from 25.9 million barrels the previous year. Ethanol production fell to 1,119K barrels per day last week, down from a record 1,196K bpd the previous week, but up from 1,099K bpd the previous year. Marketing year to date estimated corn use for ethanol totals 2.135 billion bushels, up 17 million from the previous year's pace.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

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