Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 25 Jan 2023, 17:09

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 25 - Stocks are notably lower at midday, but they're well off their session lows, and in some cases, near session highs. Disappointing guidance in Microsoft's earnings report weighed on the tech sector, setting the stage for today's early selloff. Yet, the VIX is trading below 20, reflecting little panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 101.9, or just barely above eight-month lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices are up roughly 1% as they again target a possible test of resistance at the 50-day moving average on the charts. Grain and oilseed prices are mixed to mostly higher at midday.

Wheat prices first fell notably, and then recovered to add to gains again, following reports that a Turkish ship was hit with a missile in the port near Kherson earlier today. The markets are becoming less sensitive to headlines coming out of Ukraine - almost desensitized by the daily flow of news that does more to confuse traders rather than to provide clarity to their impact on the commodities. Even so, wheat prices remain the strength of the grain and oilseed complex today amid efforts by India to cool red-hot food inflation costs. Probably the biggest concern in the wheat market is the massive short positions built by fund managers, with no other natural sellers in the marketplace right now that could offset a big short-covering rally by the funds if something stimulated them to exits those positions. Corn prices lack a compelling news story, but world supplies remain snug with Ukraine limited in its supplies, and the Argentina crop cut short by drought. Soybean prices fell briefly below the ascending channel that has contained them, but selling interest dried up at the 50-day moving average for the March contract.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index firmed to 76.5 this month, up from 76.0 the previous month. The index firmed largely due to an increase in confidence in the Asian markets. The Asian index rose 5.7 points to 92.5 this month. The North American index rose just a very modest 0.7 points to 73.1, while the European index fell 0.3 points to 102.2. The numbers tell us that the greatest confidence among the three regions continues to be ironically in the European markets, with the North American markets trailing the other two, although Asia is catching up with Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. markets continue to be obsessed with a fear that the Federal Reserve is going to kill our economy.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 0.5 million to 448.5 million barrels in the week ending January 20, putting them 3% above the five-year average for mid-January. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.8 million barrels, but they are still 8% below seasonal levels, and this is a slow demand time of year. Distillate stocks fell by 0.5 million barrels, putting them 20% below levels typically seen in mid-January. Ethanol stocks rose to their highest level since the first of April last year at 25.1 million barrels, up from 23.4 million the previous week, and up from 24.5 million barrels in the same week last year. The production of ethanol firmed to 1,012K barrels per day last week, up slightly from 1,008K bpd the previous week, but down from 1,035K bpd in the same week last year. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 102.0 million bushels of corn in the week ending January 20, as shown in the graphic below, up from 101.6 million the previous week, but down from 105. million the previous year. Estimated marketing year-to-date corn use for the production of ethanol totals 2.002 billion bushels, down 132 million or 6.2% from the previous year's pace. That leaves us roughly 25 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, reflecting the lost production time we had in late December due to weather problems.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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