Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 27 Jan 2026, 16:52

January 27 – Stocks are mixed at mid-day with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, up nearly 1% on the day as it trades at a nearly three-month high, while the Dow Jones is down over 0.5% at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle, up roughly 0.5%. A sense of calm appears to be returning to Wall Street, however, with the VIX cooling to hover around 15.8 after spiking as high as 21 just a week ago. The dollar continues its sharp decline as well, trading to a nearly four-year low today just below the 96.2 level, shedding roughly 3.3% since the start of last week. Treasuries are quietly mixed, with 10-year yields just above unchanged on the day at 4.22% while 2-year yields trade just below unchanged at 3.575%. Crude oil is rebounding from yesterday’s losses, with nearby WTI pushing near $61.90/barrel at the time of writing, up roughly 1.7% on the day. The ags have traded both sides of unchanged today and remain largely mixed with soybeans and soyoil leading the way higher.

Global trade ties are back in the headlines today following the announcement of a landmark trade deal between India and the European Union, with both sides slashing tariffs on nearly all goods, with a handful of ag products among some of the only exclusions. E.U. officials stated that the deal is expected to double the bloc’s exports to India by 2032. Elsewhere, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on his way to China today in an attempt to improve relations with the country amid recent tensions, the first such visit by a British leader in eight years. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on the U.S. response to the outcome of this meeting following Trump’s renewed threats of massive tariffs on Canada in the wake of their recent trade agreement with China. Meanwhile, President Trump yesterday announced that he would be raising tariffs on U.S. ally South Korea from 15% up to 25% after accusing the country of “not living up to its Deal with the United States.” Whether this increase will actually come to fruition or simply be used as a negotiating tactic remains to be seen, while many U.S. trade partners are also likely keeping a close eye on the Supreme Court to finally issue their ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs… whenever that happens.

Traders got a fresh look at the U.S. housing market this morning with releases from both Case Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Both indexes painted a similar picture, with the Case Shiller Home Price Index rising 1.4% year-over-year and FHFA’s Index rising 1.9% year-over-year in November, both rebounding from lows seen in October but continuing to mark a notable cooldown from the sharp gains seen in the early 2020’s. For reference, the former index made a low since July 2023 in October at 1.3% while the latter made decade-plus lows in both September and October at 1.8%. Both of these were slightly above analysts' expectations but continue to point to a slowing housing market, with gains in home prices remaining lower than consumer level inflation for the second half of 2025, effectively resulting in declining real home values.

The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index rose to -6 in January from the -7 seen in December, moving in the opposite direction of an expected decline to -8. Similar to yesterday’s data, today’s reading points to a healthier than expected U.S. manufacturing sector, though still struggling as this marks the 11^th consecutive month in contractionary territory. Still, there were some silver linings in the data, with the forward outlook improving as the Expectations Index for both shipments and new order volumes rose notably.

On another positive note, the Dallas Fed’s General Business Activity Index for the service sector broke back into expansionary territory in January at 2.7, up notably from -5.0 in the month prior and marking the first positive reading since August. Service sector revenues were also their highest since August, with the index rising to 7.8 in January from a flat (0.0) reading in December. The forward outlook improved as well, with the Company Outlook Index returning to positive territory at 5.6 versus the -2.7 reading seen in the month prior. Expectations for future revenues, capital expenditures, and employment were all positive as well.

Consumer confidence took a nosedive in January, however, with Conference Board’s headline index falling to 84.5, sharply below the average analyst estimate of 90.9 and even below the low-end estimate of 88. December was revised higher, now pegged at 94.2 versus the 89.1 initially reported, though that makes the month-on-month decline look even worse. In fact, this was the worst first reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index since May 2014, narrowly surpassing the pandemic lows. The decline was widespread, with Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson noting that “all five components of the Index deteriorated.” The real question now is whether or not this waning confidence translates to serious declines in consumer spending. The U.S. economy has continued to prove more resilient than expected, but we’ll certainly need to keep a close eye on the situation moving forward, as consumer confidence can be a leading indicator of future consumption.

Grains & Oilseeds

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.