Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 21 Jul 2022, 15:44

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 21 - Stocks are mixed this morning, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 trading lower while the NASDAQ holds onto small gains. The VIX is still trading slightly below 24, while yields on 10-year treasuries are down to trade near 2.95%. Crude oil is down fairly sharply on the return of Libyan exports and poor U.S. summer demand, with nearby WTI trading 3.7% lower to around $96/barrel. The ags are mixed with corn and soybeans down hard while the wheat complex touches both sides of unchanged.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke yesterday of Russia's expanded war aims, giving public confirmation to the widespread theory that they have no intention of stopping at "liberating the Donbas" as they've repeatedly stated since their failure to capture Kyiv early in the war. Lavrov said that Russia's goals have now expanded to the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions in southeastern Ukraine as well as "other territories," claiming that this is now necessary to protect the Russian-backed separatists in the nation's east from the long-range weapons supplied to the Ukrainian military by the U.S. and allies. This is just another example of Russia looking to blame the West to justify their actions, keeping the prospects of an end to the conflict at bay. Additionally, Lavrov said yesterday that peace talks don't make sense right now, adding to that sentiment. Despite all the positive talk, no official deal has been signed this week regarding grain exports through the Black Sea, and Lavrov's comments do nothing but cast more doubt.

This morning's updated drought monitor showed the toll that extended periods of abnormally hot, dry weather have taken on large swaths of the U.S. this summer. Drought conditions intensified from the week prior for much of the southwestern Midwest/Southern Plains, as well as some major corn & soybean producing areas of southern Minnesota, while some much needed relief was seen in areas of the Eastern Corn Belt. Although this week looks to finish out hot and dry, next week's forecast has shifted to look very favorable for major producing areas, with hot temperatures expected to finally break and beneficial rains now expected across most of the Midwest, putting pressure on corn and soybean markets.

U.S. national average gas prices have fallen to $4.44/gallon, representing their lowest level since May 12, though still well above years prior. This is an 11.5% drop in gas prices from their peak above $5.00 in mid-June, while spot WTI crude oil has fallen over 20% in the same span. Prices at the pump have remained elevated relative to volatile crude prices, though yesterday's DOE report showing weak gasoline demand and an unexpectedly-high 3.5 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks may be a sign of further downward pressure.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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