Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 25 Jul 2022, 16:11

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 25 - Stocks are mixed this morning, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both making small gains while the NASDAQ slips into the red. The VIX is up slightly on the day, though its current 23.5 is still low relative to recent levels seen this summer. The U.S. dollar is down, trading around 106.5, while yields on 10-year treasuries are up slightly to trade just above 2.8%. Commodities are firm so far today, with nearby WTI crude oil up to trade near $96.50, while the ags are squarely in the green as well.

The Nord Stream 1 Pipeline is back in focus, with Russia's Gazprom today saying that they will be cutting flows to 33 million cubic meters per day, or only 20% of its capacity, starting Wednesday. The pipeline had just been turned back on last week after a 10-day maintenance shutdown that caused widespread anxiety through Europe. Even prior to the shutdown, flows through Nord Stream 1 were running at an already-reduced rate of roughly 40% of capacity, with this new plan cutting that in half. Even prior to today's announced reduction, E.U. members were scrambling to come up with an agreeable strategy to significantly reduce gas use in order to help build stocks ahead of the upcoming winter in fear of Russian supplies being cut further or eliminated completely, with Putin once again using his nation's energy industry to put pressure on his foes. This news has sent spot Dutch TTF gas prices soaring higher again after seeing relief last week.

Tensions continue to simmer between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, with the Financial Times reporting over the weekend that private rhetoric from China had grown more stern, and even suggested the possibility of a military response to Nancy Pelosi's potential trip to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian confirmed the increased warnings, saying that China was "seriously prepared" and that China would take "strong measures to resolutely respond and counteract" when asked if they would respond militarily or diplomatically. His comments came just after U.S. General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that China was growing increasingly hostile toward its neighbors and said that the Chinese military "have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region" during his trip through the Pacific. Underscoring the simmering tensions, Taiwan's capital Taipei held air-raid drills on Monday to better prepare their people for the potential of a Chinese attack. On a positive note, President Biden has said that he hopes to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping at some point before the end of July and that the Pelosi trip may not happen at all due to the military's warnings.

Stock markets will be keeping a close eye on big tech this week, with Alphabet (Google's parent company), Amazon, Meta (Facebook's parent company), Microsoft, and others due to report earnings in the days ahead. Recent earnings reports from other players in the tech space have varied widely, helping add to market uncertainty as traders search for good news amidst the growing recession fears. Coupled with the upcoming Fed meeting and a good deal of other economic data on tap, this week is shaping up to be an interesting one in the equities space.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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