Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 03 Jul 2025, 17:09

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: Markets Brace for Trade Shifts, Tax Bill Drama & Tariff Fallout

July 3 - Stocks continue to push higher in anticipation of the tax bill passage, but the vote continues to be delayed by a marathon speech being given by House Minority Leader Jeffries. House rules allow party leadership their "magic minute" to comment on legislation for an unlimited amount of time after debate has concluded. The vote on the bill was scheduled for 5:30 a.m. this morning Eastern Time, but that was when Jeffries took the floor to begin his marathon comment period. The question now is, can he sustain his comments long enough to prevent President Trump from signing the bill - the Republicans say they have the votes to pass it - on Independence Day as he wishes. Meanwhile, Wall Street is assuming that one big piece of uncertainty is about to become certain. Businesses and consumers know that their taxes won't surge on January 1, giving them greater confidence to invest in expansion and long-term investments once they have greater certainty on the tariff front. We should know more about that next week.

Stocks are higher on the increased certainty, with the VIX trading near 16 at midday. The dollar index is trading near 97.2, or just above three-year lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.34%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.89%. Crude oil prices are pulling back by nearly 1% today, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed to firmer. The markets will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day. The headlines will likely continue to flow, amid rumors that we could hear trade deals announced. Winter wheat harvest will continue as well, with some of those bushels being pushed onto the market due to high yields. That has the wheat market on defense going into the weekend, while corn and soybean short covering provide support for those markets. Corn and soybeans also find support from the expectation that Jeffries will eventually complete his marathon speech, with the Republicans having the votes to pass the tax bill that has some very good things within it for biofuels.

Exporters sold 21 million bushels of old-crop and 37 million bushels of new-crop corn in the week ending June 26, along with 17 million bushels of old-crop and 8.8 million bushels of new-crop soybeans, 21.5 million bushels of wheat, and 2.8 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date corn export sales total 2.681 billion bushels, up 566 million or 27% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 166 million bushels, and the gap continues to grow. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.835 billion bushels, up 193 million or 12% from the previous year's pace. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 2 million bushels, but the deficit is shrinking over the past couple of weeks. My bigger concern is new-crop soybean commitments. New crop corn commitments are typically relatively low in July, but new-crop soybean commitments tend to really ramp up in July as China books soybeans for delivery in the fourth quarter of the calendar year. Thus far zero soybeans are currently listed for China for the new-crop marketing year. The market will start to take notice of that over the next few weeks if we don't start hearing from China.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

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