Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 Jul 2024, 15:50

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

July 30 - Stock trading was choppy early, with a negative bias developing by late morning following the release of several economic reports this morning, along with apprehension ahead of tomorrow's policy statement from the Federal Reserve. Wall Street is leaning hard into expectations of multiple rate cuts currently, leaving traders vulnerable in the event that the Fed disappoints with its comments. The VIX is back near 18 late-morning, while the dollar index is trading near 104.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%. Crude oil prices are 1% lower at seven-week lows, while the grain and oilseed sector is mostly lower as well, although coming well off its session lows as it did on Monday as well.

Soybean prices remain under the greatest pressure late-morning, along with weaker meal and oil prices as well. Crop models continue to call for above-trend yields in the United States due to favorable growing conditions amid soft demand and expectations that we will see further expansion of area planted in both Argentina and Brazil. Early indications are that farmers may reduce corn area planted by as much as 25 to 30% in Argentina due to poor economics and due to this past year's relatively new problem with a disease spread by the leafhopper insect. Many of those acres are expected to go into soybeans. Wheat prices remain under pressure due to weak global cash prices - particularly in the Black Sea Region. However, those prices appear to be stabilizing at these low levels, and we're at a time when farmer selling tends to slow, reducing the downward pressure. As such, we saw U.S. wheat prices finish the day in the green yesterday after a poor start, and they're already coming off their lows today as well as selling pressures ease relative to buying interest. Corn futures are caught in the middle without a story of their own, but recent lows have held thus far on the charts. StoneX's official corn and soybean yield estimates will be determined by our customer survey, the first of which will be released on Thursday afternoon of this week.

Today's JOLTS report revealed that there were 8.184 million job openings posted on June 28, beating analyst expectations of 8.0 million. Furthermore, the May numbers were revised upward to 8.230 million job openings, up from the 8.140 million originally reported. In reality, the number of new hires and the total separations were relatively unchanged in June at 5.3 million and 5.1 million respectively. There were 3.3 million quits in June, along with 1.5 million layoffs and discharges, which also was little changed from May.

The consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 for July, but that's only because the June index was revised down to 97.8, down from the 100.4 originally reported. The present situation index fell to 133.6, down from 135.3 the previous month. The expectations index rose to 78.2, up from 72.8 in June. Yet, that's still below 80, which historically has been an indicator of a coming recession. The cutoff date for the survey was July 22. Consumers were less pessimistic about the future, but more concerned about their present condition. Confidence is the highest among those consumers under 35 years of age. Twelve month inflation expectations remain stable at a high 5.4%, versus their peak of 7.9% two years ago. Half of the consumers surveyed expect higher interest rates over the coming year, although that number is trending lower. Yet, the most common write-in concerns included high prices, especially for food and groceries and overall inflation, followed by the U.S. political situation and the labor market.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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