Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 16 Jun 2023, 15:26

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 16 - Early stock gains eroded away as a couple of Federal Reserve members spoke this morning of the need for more rate hikes. Yet, the VIX continues to trade near 14, with the dollar bouncing to trade near 102.3, after briefly hitting a fresh five-week low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.77%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.73%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the weather rally continues at this point in the grain and oilseed sector ahead of a critical three-day holiday weekend that could see a lot of volatility around today's close and again on Monday night's opening trade. The cattle market is firmer this morning, while the hog market is mixed to softer. We're still waiting for cash cattle trade in the Southern Plains amid expectations of several dollars lower on the week.

Soybean crush hit 2.14 million metric tons in China last week, which is up roughly 50% from levels seen earlier this spring, and up 27.6% year-on-year. Crush activity picked up as the pace of soybean arrivals at the ports increased, but the demand for soymeal has not risen at the same pace. More than 12 mmt of soybeans arrived in China in May, while demand for crush remained at 8 - 8.5 mmt. Soymeal stocks rose to 459.3K metric tons last week, up 11% from 413.2K mt the previous week. China is expected to receive 2 - 3 mmt of soybeans per month in excess to crush needs through the summer, which is expected to lead to weaker demand for U.S. soybeans in the fourth quarter of this year when our new-crop soybeans hit the market. This is believed to be China's way of weaning itself off dependency on U.S. soybeans amid rising geopolitical tensions, aided by rapidly rising Brazilian production. Taking these soybeans from Brazil now and putting them in storage then allows Brazil to focus on exporting its large corn crop from September into year-end, again allowing China to avoid taking any more corn from the United States than it needs to, while reducing U.S. corn exports.

Total U.S. soybean crush likely topped 190 million bushels in May, bringing crush in the first 9 months of the soybean marketing year to 1.685 billion bushels. That's short of USDA's target by just 535 million bushels, suggesting that we will likely exceed the target by the end of the year on August 31 as demand for oil and meal increases. The increase in the demand for meal is tied to the short crop in Argentina, while the growing demand for renewable diesel accounts for the rise in demand for oil.

The palm oil market woke up overnight, spurred on by strength in the soyoil and canola markets. El Nino years tend to see lower palm oil production, based on our analysis, and the strength in soyoil and canola prices puts a fresh light on palm oil. Soyoil found strength in the recent soybean rally tied to the short Argentine crop followed by a delay in Midwest rains that has crop ratings dropping in the U.S. soybean belt. That buying accelerated yesterday when the NOPA crush report showed smaller-than-expected soyoil stocks as usage gains momentum again. There's also a sense that the one-week delay granted to the EPA for announcing biofuel blending requirements for 2023, 2024, and 2025 "may" result in increased support for those products produced from the edible oils, breathing new life into the sector. Market sentiment could quickly pivot for now if Midwest weather shifts wetter, with risks elevated going into a three-day holiday weekend.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
Dairy
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Cocoa
Coffee
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Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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