Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 27 Jun 2022, 16:11

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

June 27 - Stocks are mixed in a day of choppy trade, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both up slightly while the NASDAQ trades slightly lower amid mixed economic news. The VIX is up slightly, trading near 27.5, while the dollar is off to trade near 103.7 and yields on 10-year treasuries climb to trade near 3.2%. Crude oil is up on the day, with nearby WTI trading around $109.5 and nearby Brent trading near $115. The ags are mixed, with corn and the wheat complex both selling off while soybeans climb higher.

U.S. pending home sales data surprised to the upside today, with the index unexpectedly rising 0.7% despite expectations of a 4% decline. Despite the month-on-month improvement, the index is still down 13.6% from the year prior, reflecting the slowing market. From a regional perspective, contract signings rose in the nation's Northeast and South, while falling in the Midwest and West. The unexpected jump breaks a six month losing streak and provides some positive sentiment to start the week, though this report likely won't change expectations of declines in the months to come as mortgage rates continue their climb to near 6% with further rate hikes from the Fed on their way.

The Dallas Fed provided some bearish news this morning with their U.S. Manufacturing Index surprising to the downside by showing a -17.7 reading for June vs. expectations of a -3.1 drop. This is sharply lower than the month prior's already ugly -7.3 and marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline from 2022's February peak at 14.0. Their Outlook Uncertainty index also rose dramatically to 43.7 from May's 26.5. This is the highest level of uncertainty seen on the report since April 2020 in the heat of the initial pandemic fallout.

Crude oil continues its climb through the morning amid news that OPEC+ has made cuts to their forecasted oil market surplus, now seen at 1,000,000 barrels per day vs. previous expectations of 1,400,000 barrels per day. This comes ahead of Thursday's highly-anticipated meeting to discuss plans to accelerate production, though disruptions abound. Libyan officials warned today that they may be forced to declare force majeure on crude exports from key ports in the Gulf of Sirte due to growing political unrest and oil blockades by protestors looking to oust the current leadership. Libyan production has struggled of recent, only running near half capacity, despite their hopes of increasing output to help offset global disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. This comes as global trade flows continue to readjust, with Russian crude exports to India and China surging amidst reports of Russian tankers turning off tracking systems to hide their movements.

Russian attacks have widened again in Ukraine, with missiles returning to Kyiv and other areas that have been left out of the fighting for some time following Russia's shift in focus to the Donbas. Included in these attacks was a shopping mall in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, reportedly with 1,000 civilians inside. As the Russians' grinding assault in the east gradually gains more ground, it seems they aim to distract Ukraine's military on other fronts in order to aid their advance.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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