Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 09 Jun 2025, 16:55

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 9 - The S&P and the Nasdaq continued to trade near three-month highs this morning, while the Dow pulled back a bit. Traders are encouraged by the renewed trade talks with China, as well as recent data showing a resilient economy, including Friday's encouraging jobs report. The VIX is trading near 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 99.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%. Crude oil prices probed to fresh two-month highs above $65 this morning, and they continue to trade near those levels at midday. Meanwhile, the grain and oilseed sector is mostly weaker, led by active selling in wheat.

The trade war continues to weigh on China's economy, where deflation is more of a risk than inflation. China's May consumer price index was down 0.2% on the month and down 0.1% on the year. The core CPI that excludes food and energy was flat in May, but up 0.6% on the year. China's producer price index that measures inflation at the wholesale level was negative for the 33rd consecutive month in May, down 0.4% on the month and down 3.3% on the year. More than 80% of the reported product categories experienced deflation in May at the wholesale level. Consumer products continue to see significant deflation as prices are slashed trying to stimulate demand, but consumer buying outside of heavily subsidized areas remains weak amid poor consumer confidence in the economy.

China imported a record 13.92 million metric tons (511 million bushels) of soybeans in May, up from the previous high of 12.02 mmt in May 2023. April to May imports total 20 mmt, up 6.4% from the previous year's pace. The bulk of those soybeans came from Brazil. Chinese soybean imports from January to May total 37.11 mmt (1.364 billion bushels), down 0.7% from the previous year's pace due to low imports from the United States over the winter that it is now making up for with massive shipments from Brazil. Chinese imports of corn, wheat, barley, sorghum, and rice in May totaled just 2.63 mmt, down 53% from the previous year's pace.

USDA inspected 65.2 million bushels of corn for shipment in the week ending June 5, along with 20.1 million bushels of soybeans, 10.7 million bushels of wheat, and 1.1 million bushels of grain sorghum. None of the above totals included commodities destined for China. The corn and soybean inspection totals were impressive for this time of year, especially in the absence of business with China. Mexico led the way in volumes taken of both corn and soybeans in the latest week reported.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections to all destinations total 1.980 billion bushels, up 440 million bushels or 28% from the previous year's pace, and up 160 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31. Corn export inspections have become a bit more volatile since new crop Argentine supplies started hitting the market, particularly as the harvest now begins in Brazil as well. But the overall pace of U.S. corn export shipments remains impressive. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections to all destinations total 1.660 billion bushels, up 171 million bushels or 12% from the previous year's pace, and 81 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Brazil continues to actively ship soybeans at a near-record pace, but China is absorbing a large portion of those shipments, perhaps sending other customers back our way even though U.S. soybeans are higher priced on the market than are Brazil's.

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