Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 01 Mar 2023, 16:54

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

March 1 - Early morning strength has faded, with the major stock indexes now in the red at mid-day while the VIX rises to push above 21. Weakness in the dollar continues through the morning, though it has bounced from its low near 104 to trade above 104.3 at the time of writing. Treasuries are rallying, with 10-year yields hovering near the 4% level, while 2-year yields climb to their highest level since 2007 near 4.88%. Crude oil is down slightly, with the nearby WTI contract trading near $76.8, while the ags are mixed.

More negative U.S. manufacturing data was released this morning, with S&P Global's Manufacturing February PMI being revised lower to 47.3 from the preliminary reading of 47.8. Although this was the fourth consecutive monthly contraction, it was still up from January's 46.9 and marks the second monthly improvement in a row. Elsewhere, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also released their Manufacturing PMI for February, similarly showing a contractionary reading of 47.7 but improving slightly from the 47.4 seen in January. Same with S&P Global's index, this was the fourth consecutive contractionary reading. One positive takeaway was an improvement in the New Orders subindex, rising to 47 in February from the 42.5 seen in January. Although remaining in contractionary territory for the six month in a row, this was the highest level of new orders seen since November. The Inventories portion of the index fell to 46.9 from the 47.4 the month prior, another positive sign for ramping up production in the future.

U.S. construction spending sank in January by -0.1% from the month prior, down to $1.826 trillion, versus market expectations of a 0.2% increase. December's construction spending was also revised from its previously reported -0.4% month-on-month decline down to -0.7%, making it the sharpest monthly drop in nearly two years. The drop was mostly driven by reductions in public construction expenditures, which were down by -0.6% in January, while private construction spending remained flat from the month prior. The U.S. has now seen drops in construction spending in four of the last six months, the worst such streak since 2018 as the economy continues to show signs of softening.

Fighting continues to intensify around Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city that has been the focal point of this winter's Russian advance. After losing considerable ground through the late summer and fall, Russian forces have regrouped and claimed the battlefield momentum of recent as they slowly advance through the Donbas in an attempt to encircle Bakhmut. However, the turning of the calendar to March brings fresh hope for Ukraine as the ground thaws and the notorious mud season begins to arrive. Logistical issues caused by impassable soil conditions in the spring have impeded invading forces in eastern Europe for decades, and also snarled Russia's initial advance on Ukraine this time last year. The existing Black Sea export corridor is also set to expire this month, meaning the two sides will need to come to an agreement to keep ag products flowing out of Ukraine to the global market. Russia has continued to push to get more out of the deal, such as an emphasis on their own fertilizer exports, specifically ammonia through their pipeline to the Black Sea port of Yuznhy (a.k.a. Pivdennyi), though the damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure may make this an impossibility. Elsewhere, China's recent peace proposal was met with criticism from both sides and looks to be largely a non-starter. Although we're now over a year into the war, the fighting in Ukraine only looks to escalate further with more western weaponry, including large numbers of tanks, making their way to the Ukrainians in the near future as they prepare for a potential spring advance of their own.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Grains & Oilseeds

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