Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 14 Mar 2022, 16:32

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 14 - The roll of money out of commodities into equities started to reverse mid-morning, although it lacked clear definition as Wall Street seeks greater clarity from a plethora of rumors emanating from the Ukraine war. Today's initial money flow was impacted by rumors of progress in the peace talks, although that money flow changed on reports that the talks had been suspended for the day. All of this is taking place within the backdrop of a significant meeting of the Federal Reserve over the next two days as well. The VIX is trading near 31 today, reflecting steady levels of anxiety on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 98.8, while yields on 10-year Treasuries reach a fresh 32-month high of 2.11% ahead of the Fed meeting. Crude oil prices are 7% lower, while the Ags are mixed in volatile trade.

Wheat prices continue to show the greatest volatility, with prices reacting to the latest rumors coming out of Russia. A news story coming from Russia reported that it would ban exports of wheat and other commodities beginning March 15 through June 30 to protect its domestic needs. That reversed significant losses in the wheat markets, turning them into notable gains. However, those gains waned when another headline was seen, stating that some exports are expected to continue to be allowed; perhaps equaling its previous quotas. Russia's economy is a mess - likely heading into a prolonged recession or depression as a result of the sanctions placed on it by the West. Its currency has collapsed. Russia must balance managing food inflation worries with generating cash to finance its war efforts. It should have surplus wheat supplies to export to countries willing to continue doing business with it, although it won't be easy.

March soymeal provided the excitement in the oilseed complex, with the expiring contract trading more than $32 higher as remaining shorts got squeezed. The May contract backed off early strength created by reports that Argentina suspended exports of soyoil and soymeal over the weekend, but that strength waned as traders realized that it would likely be a short suspension. Weekly export shipments of corn and wheat were weak in this morning's report, while soybean shipments were adequate. As such, the primary driver of the Ags continues to be the Ukraine war and the South American drought, with the ebb and flow of the market part of the process of trying to manage ever-changing supply and demand ideas based on the latest rumors.

USDA inspected 45.1 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending March 10, as shown in the graphic below, along with 28.4 million bushels of soybeans, 10.4 million bushels of wheat and 10.2 million bushels of grain sorghum. Of the above, essentially all of the grain sorghum was destined for China, but no wheat was loaded on ships destined for China. USDA noted that 14.3 million bushels of soybeans were destined for China last week, while the same was true for 13.2 million bushels of corn. Total corn shipments last week to all destinations were a five-week low, raising red flags for traders, and contributing to today's sell-off in the feed grain. Meanwhile, last week's soybean shipments to all destinations pushed above the weekly pace needed to hit USDA's target for the first time in two months as the short South American crop sustains demand for U.S. supplies. That shipment pace is expected to be unseasonably strong this summer.

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