Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 03 Mar 2022, 15:46

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 3 - The Dow Jones Industrials started off solidly this morning but have mostly pared gains since, with the trade seeing some positivity in terms of Russia and Ukraine meeting for discussions, as well as a potential Iran nuclear deal and positive U.S. economic news. However the prospect of a drawn-out war remains, as Ukraine fights hard against Russian coercion and Putin shows no signs of letting up. The effects of an extended conflict will be unavoidable at some point, particularly in the commodity sector, with $100+ crude oil the elephant in the room in terms of keeping things humming along here in this country.

Russian and Ukrainian delegates did meet at the Ukrainian border today to discuss some sort of agreement between the warring factions, with the Ukraine side (according to one of the country's presidential advisor) looking for an immediate ceasefire, armistice, and evacuation of citizens from attacked cities. This was the second round of talks between the two countries, and comes as Ukraine and others (including the U.S. and Britain) accuse Russia of civilian targeting and human rights abuses. Russia was also removed from the global distribution system that runs airline reservations, another blow to the Russian aviation industry that has been shunned now by major carriers and manufacturers. Despite all this, Russian forces continue to advance on major southern UKR cities, a week after the war began, and President Putin told French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on a call today that military operations would continue - they are only intensifying today...

Traders had plenty of economic data to parse through ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before the U.S. Senate this morning. Initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending 2/26 came in at 215k, well short of the average 225k trade expectation and 233k on the week prior. That's the lowest number of applications for unemployment since January 1, as the U.S. economy continues to recover from COVID and restrictions ease throughout the country. Continuing claims were basically steady at 1.48 million for the week ending 2/19, though a lower 1.42 mln figure was expected there. Markit's U.S. Services and Composite PMI readings both came in slightly below estimates at 56.5 and 55.9, respectively, and both down only slightly from last month as well, indicating roughly steady business growth and expectations. Factory orders for U.S. manufacturers rose 1.4% in January, double the expected MoM increase, with December orders revised sharply higher from -0.4% to +0.7% as well. And finally, durable goods orders rose 1.6% in January, even with trade estimates and the month prior. All told, a promising run of data indicators for the strength of the U.S. economy today.

WTI crude oil hit its highest level since 2008 early this morning, at more than $116 per barrel, with worldwide Brent Crude coming within a few cents of the $120/bbl mark, its highest price since 2012. The market has cooled a bit into mid-morning after rumors of an Iranian nuclear deal, and subsequently the prospect of Iran crude barrels coming back on to the market. The U.S., E.U., and others continue to slap sanctions on Russia to make it tougher to produce and export oil; they have yet to directly ban Russian oil and gas exports, but world trade flows are already feeling the hit due to the indirect sanctions and voluntary actions by energy companies, not to mention skyrocketing prices. That goes double for the grains and edible oils markets, where the Black Sea absence is already hitting hard as global importers desperately seek replacements. Wheat contracts remain generally limit-up, as FOB premiums explode among other major wheat exporters.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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