Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 31

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 31 Mar 2026, 16:37

Today's Perspective Video: EPA's Biofuel Rules are Bullish Feedstock Demand

March 31 - The Iran war, and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to be the driving force on Wall Street. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated today that the next few days would be decisive in the war with Iran, raising the prospect that we could either see peace or escalation of the conflict very soon. Yet, it's also the end of the month and the end of the quarter, leading to book squaring that distorts market movement at times. The VIX eased closer to 27 at midday, reflecting elevated but easing anxiety on Wall Street, while the dollar index backed off of yesterday's 10-month highs to trade near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.79%. WTI crude oil prices are trading close to $104 per barrel, while Brent is trading near $119. The grain and oilseed markets generally saw increased positive money flow in recent weeks, but today they are trading USDA's quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions reports that were just released.

USDA reports that its 2026 planting intentions survey pegged this year's corn acres at 95.338 million, soybeans at 84.700 million, and all wheat at 43.775 million acres. That total came in about a million acres less than expected, with soybeans and wheat coming in short of trade expectations, while corn came in higher. If there was going to be a surprise in this report, that's the way it would have been expected. As such, that is likely what the market anticipated.

USDA will publish its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026/27 marketing year on May 12. It typically uses the corn and soybean yields from its trend yield published at the Outlook Forum in February, and then uses the planted acreage numbers from today's report. That essentially gives us the supply side of the balance sheet. My estimates would put the corn crop at 15.9 billion bushels, down 1.1 billion from last year's crop. Assuming similar demand, it would drop stocks below 2 billion bushels, but remain adequate to meet that anticipated demand, although with little margin for error if a weather problem develops. The debate will be whether the corn acreage comes down and soybean acreage goes up due to the effect of the war on fertilizer prices and the good news that soybeans received from the EPA on biofuel production last Friday? The corn stocks number came in below expectations, suggesting that USDA overstated the size of last year's crop IF this tendency is confirmed in the next couple of stocks reports.

The lower wheat acreage fits with what we've seen, and with a global trend. The global shortage of nitrogen fertilizer created when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz amplifies this trend toward lower global production, although the U.S. is still well supplied. The lower than expected soybean acreage leaves us with adequate supplies with the current biofuel program IF China buys 12 mmt in the coming year, but buying 25 mmt would leave us short, requiring more acres.

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