Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 09 Mar 2023, 16:39

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

March 9 - Stocks are rallying at mid-day following weak jobs data this morning, with the market hoping this may turn the Fed more dovish than current expectations. The VIX is trading roughly unchanged near 19. The dollar has rebounded from its lows earlier in the morning, though still squarely in the red as it trades near 105.3. Treasury yields are falling very slightly, with 10-year yields hovering around 3.97% while 2-year yields trade near 4.98%. The nearby WTI contract is trading in the green near $77.25 at the time of writing, though off its morning highs above $78, while the ags are mostly in the red.

The government of the Netherlands announced on Wednesday their decision to restrict semiconductor technology to China. The all-important semiconductor industry has come into the spotlight in a big way these past few years, playing a very large part in driving tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. Back in October, the U.S. introduced large-scale restrictions on shipments of chipmaking tools to China, but needs cooperation from other major suppliers, such as the Netherlands, for these restrictions to truly be effective. To that end, this is a big win for the U.S., but immediately drew the ire of China. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that China is "firmly opposed" to the move, saying that it limits normal economic and trade exchanges between Chinese and Dutch companies. We've followed the uptick in anti-U.S. rhetoric coming out of China recently, and this is yet another move that will likely add fuel to the fire as tensions continue to build.

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was again forced off the grid early Thursday morning following fresh widespread Russian missile strikes. Located on the Dnipro River in southeastern Ukraine, the plant has been the site of numerous close calls due to its proximity to the frontlines and has been under Russian control since early in the war. Russia's strategy of targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure has continued for months now and each time power supply to the plant is lost, it's forced to run on emergency diesel power in order to avoid a meltdown. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has long expressed their concern about the potential for a disaster if more care is not taken, including adding a safe zone around the plant. Following this most recent outage, the sixth so far in the war, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that "each time we are rolling the dice" and urged action on the matter. He again expressed the seriousness of a meltdown, reminding us that this is the largest nuclear power station in Europe and warning of what a disaster it could turn into if this is allowed to continue.

The U.S. imported a record level of Russian urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) in January, according to updated trade data released yesterday. UAN is a popular liquid fertilizer used predominantly in more advanced countries. The 269,379 tons imported in January easily passed the previous record of 227,358 tons set back in March 2013. Other U.S. allies, such as Canada, have imposed tariffs on Russian product, making them uneconomical and thus driving their Russian imports to zero. Meanwhile, the U.S. has taken advantage of the displaced, cheaper Russian tons, ramping up imports significantly through late 2022 and early 2023. While the fear of disruption to Russian supplies to the global market contributed greatly to skyrocketing fertilizer prices last spring, Russian exports have largely been unaffected, save for ammonia. This has been a major factor in the correction to fertilizer prices seen since last summer.

U.S. employers made 77.77K job cuts in February, a drop from the 102.943K seen in January but still representing the largest cuts seen in the month of February since 2009. The technology sector saw the largest cuts at 21.387K, followed by the health care & products sector at 9.749K. In total, the tech sector has accounted for ~35% of all announced job cuts to start 2023. U.S. labor markets have remained surprisingly resilient, keeping the Fed on their aggressive path. Coupled with this morning's jobless claims, however, this could be a sign of the labor market finally softening, helping quell wage inflation, one of the most nagging factors in our ongoing inflationary battle. The market has taken this as good news, with hopes of a softening labor market potentially slowing the Fed's pace of continued rate hikes. With Fed comments turning more hawkish in the last month as recent inflationary readings came in hotter than expected, it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, these updated employment statistics will have on their sentiment ahead of their next meeting, set for March 21st - 22nd.

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