Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 01 May 2025, 17:00

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 1 - The Nasdaq traded higher today than it settled on April 2nd, ahead of the reciprocal tariff announcement. We saw general strength in the stock market today, led by the tech sector, as Wall Street prices in optimism that we will soon be getting announcements of completed trade deals, combined with many earnings reports that are beating estimates. The VIX is trading below 25 at midday, while the dollar index rallied to a nearly three-week high to trade near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.22%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.67%. Crude oil prices are trading near $58 per barrel at midday, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed, with a firmer tone. Chicago and Minneapolis wheat found support at current price levels, while Kansas City made new lows as beneficial rains fall in the Plains wheat belt. July corn prices are testing chart support near $4.70, while July soybeans find support near the $10.40 level, which has largely held prices over the past several weeks. None of these markets currently have a story, although each of them remain somewhat vulnerable to a weather story, if one were to develop in the weeks ahead.

The final PMI manufacturing index for April, produced by S&P Global, came in at 50.2, down from the mid-month estimate of 50.7, but unchanged from March. A number above "50" indicates month-on-month growth, so we saw slight growth in April, driven mostly by domestic demand. However, export orders fell at the sharpest pace since November, holding down the overall number. Input cost growth eased slightly from the two-and-a-half-year high posted in March, but output prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years as firms tried to protect profit margins. The survey also noted concerns over supply chain disruptions and rising costs tied to the tariff war.

The ISM manufacturing index survey revealed something a bit more optimistic, coming in at 48.7 for April. The April number came in slightly below the 49.0 reading posted in March. It's important to note that this survey measures the sector's health differently than the above. With this, an index above the 42.3 level historically has reflected month-on-month expansion. New orders also contracted in this survey for the third consecutive month, although not as badly as they did in March. Prices continued to increase, while backlogs decreased.

Exporters sold 39.9 million bushels of old-crop and 9.6 million bushels of new-crop corn in the week ending April 24, along with 15.7 million bushels of old-crop and 1.8 million bushels of new-crop soybeans, and 2.6 million bushels of old- and 8.8 million bushels of new-crop wheat. No grain sorghum was sold during the week. Mexico was the featured buyer of U.S. corn last week at a net 17.8 million bushels of old- and 7.3 million bushels of new-crop. Marketing year to date corn export sales to all destinations total 2.313 billion bushels, up 473 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace, and up 115 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. China (likely Sinograin) was the featured buyer of U.S. soybeans during the week at a net 5.1 million bushels, although nearly all of that was previous sales to "unknown destinations" that were switched to China last week. Marketing year to date soybean export sales to all destinations totals 1.742 billion bushels, up 202 million bushels or 13% from the previous year's pace and 34 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target.

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