Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 20 May 2022, 16:32

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 20 - Stocks quickly lost early positive momentum this morning, as confidence again eroded in the economy, as well as in the ability of policymakers to tame inflation without adding to the damage done to the economy. Stocks trended lower through much of the morning, as the VIX trended stronger, trading above the pivotal 30 level again as we approached midday. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in danger of reaching a milestone of its first eight-week losing streak in 90 years. The dollar firmed again to trade near 103.1, following yesterday's sharp break, while yields on 10-year Treasuries trade near 2.80%. Crude oil prices are quietly mixed at midday, while the Ags were very mixed as well.

Wheat prices continued to tumble today. Chart signals are changing; momentum has reversed, and the Algos are chasing the market lower. End users are content to let prices come to them, leaving both domestic and export demand soft. The mills will return at some point, as they lack needed coverage currently, but they have thus far been able to allow the market to work in their favor after Kansas City knocked on the door of record high prices earlier this week. The hard red winter wheat crop still has its problems, and the spring wheat crop faces challenges as well. But there's really nothing to step in front of the selling currently, allowing momentum to weigh further on prices in the near-term.

The ebb and flow between corn and soybeans continues today, with soybeans currently the favored commodity between the two. This ebb and flow has been going on for the past six to eight months. Money flow favored corn for much of the spring, gathering added momentum following the March 31 USDA planting intentions report that showed a larger-than-expected swing in acreage away from corn toward soybeans. However, the focus is now shifting. Traders will worry about final planted acres and the summer weather pattern in a few weeks. But for now, they're watching demand for old-crop soybeans ratchet up, drawing stocks tighter ahead of this year's harvest. Meanwhile, corn demand has softened, and traders see little risk that we'll run out of corn ahead of this year's harvest. They can't say that though for soybeans, although price would make sure that we didn't actually run out of supplies. Nonetheless, the net effect has been a movement of money flow into soybeans at the expense of corn in the near-term. The tighter bean situation will likely continue the next several months, but corn acres should be more of an issue as we move into June.

The next two weeks show a drier trend for the northwestern Midwest, although the northern Red River Valley along the border of Minnesota and North Dakota will continue to see problems getting this year's crops planted if the forecast to the left verifies. Yet, much of the area should see late progress in seeding this year's crops. The greatest concerns will be corn acres in the Red River Valley. Meanwhile, challenges are increasing for Missouri, Illinois and areas to the east and south, where heavy rains are expected, although much of that will be in the next week to 10 days. The scattered nature of some of these storms should allow progress to continue in areas that see wider windows of opportunity, and I still expect most acres to get planted. Yet, many of those acres will be "mudded in" potentially leading to yield challenges.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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