Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 22 May 2024, 15:39

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

May 22 – Stocks are quietly mixed at mid-day, while the VIX remains very low, pushing below 12 at times this morning. The market is eagerly anticipating Q1 earnings from Nvidia, set to be released after the close this afternoon. With the enormous rally seen over the last year and a half due to ongoing AI mania, Nvidia now holds major weight in the biggest indexes, accounting for over 5% of the S&P 500 and 6.5% of the Nasdaq according to a Reuters report, meaning its results will likely be a major market mover in either direction. The dollar is continuing its modest push higher this week, trading around 104.7 at the time of writing. Treasuries are trading slightly in the green on the day, with 10-year yields trading just above 4.42% and 2-year yields above 4.86%. Crude oil remains slightly in the red, with nearby WTI hovering around $78.30, while the ags are largely mixed.

Existing home sales in the U.S. fell to 4.14M in April, down from an upwardly revised 4.22M in March and below market expectations of holding relatively steady at 4.21M. After trending downward throughout 2022 and bottoming out last October at a 13-year low of 3.85M, home sales had rebounded through the winter, hitting a 12-month high in February before counter-seasonally reversing course this spring. The median sales price rose by 3.7% month-on-month to $407,600 in April, reaching the highest level seen since June 2023 and contributing to the drop in demand, along with 30-year mortgage rates holding above 7% and squeezing prospective buyers. One of the more interesting points from today’s report, however, was an uptick in the supply of homes on the market, as inventories rose to 1.21M in April. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase in existing home inventories, reaching their highest level since October 2022. Tight supply due to so many homeowners being locked into mortgages at historically low interest rates and not wanting to sell has been one of the main factors in driving prices higher. If demand remains weak due to high prices and rates, and supply continues to build, the U.S. housing market could experience a slowdown.

U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.825 Mb in the week ending May 17, a sharp departure from an expected 1.92 Mb decline and reversing course from consecutive declines in the two weeks prior. Refinery utilization rose sharply to 91.7%, the highest level seen in four months as several refineries returned from maintenance in anticipation of the upcoming peak gasoline demand season. Gasoline inventories fell by 0.94 Mb, slightly less than expectations of a 1.16 Mb draw, while diesel inventories also saw an unexpected rise, jumping 0.38 Mb vs. market expectations of a 0.30 Mb drop.

The minutes of the FOMC’s May meeting will be released this afternoon, giving the market an opportunity to parse through the closed-door comments of Fed members. In their recent public comments, FOMC members have all echoed similar sentiment of higher for longer, citing the need to see several more months of cooling inflationary readings before considering a change in stance after seeing a rebound in early 2024. With the U.S. economy holding steadier than expected and inflation largely stagnating well above the Fed’s 2% mandate, it makes sense to hear this cautiously hawkish tone. Unless we see a sharp, unexpected downturn in the economy, it’s hard to see a meaningful change in course. Either way, look for traders to find quotes to cling to in the minutes released this afternoon, as the debate over Fed policy will likely remain in the forefront for the remainder of the year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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