Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 22 May 2025, 17:07

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 22 - Stocks traded both sides of unchanged this morning, with a firmer bias following the release of this morning's economic data. The VIX is trading near 21 midday, while the dollar index is trading near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.56%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker at midday, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed. The grains continue to consolidate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend, with corn and soybean prices finding underlying support from increased weather risks as June approaches, while sellers emerge to take advantage of the recent wheat short covering rally amid expectations for a big U.S. crop.

The PMI Composite Flash Index for May came in at 52.1 this morning, up from 50.6 previously. The manufacturing index rose to 52.3, up from 50.2 previously and above analyst expectations of 49.8. The services index rose to 52.3 as well, up from 50.8 previously, and above analyst expectations of 50.6. A number above 50 indicates month-on-month expansion for this survey. While Wall Street was encouraged by the better-than-expected results, traders also took note of the survey's mention of higher tariff-related costs that are moving through the system, which are expected to hit the consumer over the next couple of months. Other data released this morning showed that existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 4.00 million units in April, down slightly from 4.02 million in March, and below analyst expectations of 4.130 million. Consumer uncertainty continues to hamper the housing market.

Exporters sold 46.9 million bushels of old-crop corn in the week ending May 15, along with another 8.6 million bushels of the coming year's harvest. Additionally they sold 11.3 million bushels of old-crop soybeans, along with 0.6 million new-crop bushels. They also sold an impressive 32.4 million bushels of new-crop wheat, which was very partially offset by reductions of old-crop demand totaling 0.5 million bushels. Another 1.3 million bushels of grain sorghum were also sold. The 90-day pause on reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs with China began on May 11, so it is noteworthy that China bought 7,800 MT of U.S. pork in the week ending May 15, along with 200 MT of U.S. beef.

Marketing year to date corn export sales now total 2.491 billion bushels through May 15, up 551 million bushels or 28% from the previous year's pace, and 166 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Demand for U.S. corn remains quite strong, which is a bit surprising considering that nearly 40% of Argentina's crop is already harvested, and the first fields of Brazil's safrinha crop have been harvested as well. Yields have come in better than expected in both cases, yet demand for U.S. corn remains unseasonably strong. That's not necessarily true for soybeans though, which are seeing their demand soften a bit. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.775 billion bushels, up 200 million bushels or 13% from the previous year's pace, but up just 8 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Brazil's soybean harvest is essentially complete, and two-thirds of Argentina's crop is in the bin, with yields exceeding expectations. As such, demand for U.S. soybeans may remain low into / until the fourth quarter, unless we get a big trade deal with China that forces it to buy larger volumes of U.S. soybeans in exchange to access to the U.S. consumer market.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

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Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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