Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 27

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 27 May 2026, 16:15

May 27 – The White House called today’s Iranian state TV report regarding agreement on a memorandum of understanding a “complete fabrication,” causing stocks to pare morning gains and crude oil to pare morning losses. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are now in the red at midday, though the Dow Jones is clinging to small (+0.3%) gains; all remain near their recent all-time highs. The VIX remains quite muted, holding right at unchanged on the day at the time of writing as it trades near 17. The dollar is having a quiet day as well, remaining in the middle of its recent range as it trades just above the 99.2 level. Treasuries are just below unchanged on the day, with 10-year yields falling back below 4.49% and 2-year yields just below 4.04%. Crude oil remains in the red on the day, though it has bounced from morning lows following pushback from the U.S. in regards to an imminent peace deal, with nearby WTI back above $90 after briefly dipping to a month-plus low below the $88 mark, while nearby Brent futures trade near $93.50 at the time of writing after pushing as low as $91.75 earlier in the session. The ags are largely mixed at midday, with the grains mostly lower but the soy and protein complexes pushing higher.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. continue to push higher, with the Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) showing average 30-year rates rising to 6.65% in the week ending May 22^nd, up from 6.56% in the week prior and marking a nine-month high. Mortgage rates had been trending lower through the latter half of 2025 and beginning of 2026, bottoming out at 6.09% in late February but rallying since, with this morning’s print marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase. This uptick led to an 8.3% weekly decline in overall mortgage applications, the sharpest drop seen since late March. The overall drop was a combination of a sharp 18.1% week-over-week drop in refinancing applications to their lowest level since late July, being partially offset by a much slighter 0.4% decline in new purchase applications. The housing sector has shown some signs of life recently amid a sluggish stretch in recent years; it will be interesting to see how the recent uptick in rates translates into realized demand changes moving forward. More housing data is on tap in the near-term, with April Building Permits and New Home Sales data both due out tomorrow morning.

The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to impress, with this morning’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index surging to a strong expansionary reading of 13 in May, sharply above expectations of a modest improvement to 4 and marking the highest level for the metric since December 2021. This also marks the third consecutive month in expansionary territory for the index, the first time that has happened since the same stretch in late 2021 and ending a streak of 12 consecutive months in contraction. Much of this strength was driven by a surge in new orders, rising to 17 from the 8 seen in April, as well as shipments, rising to 16 in May from a contractionary -2 in April and marking a high not seen since June 2021.

The service sector remains less rosy, though the headline Services Index from the Richmond Fed did show its strongest expansion since December 2024 with a reading of 14, up from 9 in April and well above market expectations of a slight dip back to 8. That headline positivity did mask a bit of concern, however, with the services employment subindex falling back into contraction, though slightly at -1, after showing a strong reading of 6 seen in April. Elsewhere, the Dallas Fed’s General Business Activity Index for the service sector remained squarely in contractionary territory at -7.7 in May, though it is worth noting that’s a continued improvement from the -9.9 seen in April and -13.3 seen in March. Additionally, the Dallas Fed’s Services Revenue Index showed its strongest print since January, rising to 5 in May from the 4.3 seen in April, marking the fifth consecutive month in expansionary territory. Digging in a little deeper in the context of the Fed’s dual mandate, there are certainly still some concerning signs present, with the employment subindex falling deeper into contraction (-3.2 vs. -1 in April) and input price pressures remaining quite elevated, though improving modestly from the month prior (29.7 in May vs. 31.2 in April).

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell to a record low for the comparable week at only 26% good/excellent on yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, down another 1% week-on-week, while the share rated poor/very poor rose by 1% to now sit at 44%, the highest for the comparable week since 2014. The worst issues continue to center in the heart of the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt on the Plains, though this week’s national decline was driven more by drops elsewhere (MT -7%, ID/MI/WA -6%, OR -4%, IL -3%). The market doesn’t seem to care much today, given the ugly selloff in the wheat complex as it continues to follow crude oil downward. We should have clearer expectations for the size of the U.S. hard red crop very soon, with maturity running well ahead of schedule on the Southern Plains given this year’s dryness, but weekend rains and more in the forecast may keep combines out of the field near-term.

Grains & Oilseeds

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.