Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 May 2023, 15:33

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

May 3 - Stocks are choppy at mid-day, with the Nasdaq in the green while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes trade lower and the VIX rises near 18.8 at the time of writing as the market awaits this afternoon's announcement from the Fed. The Fed's policy decision statement is due to be released at 2:00 PM Eastern (1:00 PM Central), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's closely watched press conference scheduled for 30 minutes after. Traders will be looking for any indications of the Fed's plan going forward, hoping for a pivot to rate cuts before the end of 2023 despite the Fed's continued insistence that they will not repeat mistakes of the past by doing so too soon. The U.S. dollar is continuing to push lower, now below 101.2, while treasury yields continue to soften as well, with 10-year yields near 3.37% and 2-year yields near 3.93%. Crude oil is continuing its fall as well, with the nearby WTI now below $69 for the first time since late March. The ags remain mixed, though the wheat complex is now screaming higher after its recent slide.

Private sector business activity grew in April at its fastest pace since May 2022, with this morning's S&P Global Composite PMI coming in at 53.4, only falling slightly from its preliminary 53.5 reading despite expectations of a sharper decline. The Composite PMI tracks overall private sector business conditions (sales, new orders, employment, prices paid/received, etc.) from both the manufacturing and service sectors, with readings above 50, like today's, indicating expansion and readings below 50 indicating contraction. After dipping into contractionary territory for seven consecutive months starting in July 2022, we've now seen three consecutive months in expansionary territory so far in 2023. Growth was firmer than expected in both sectors, with employment also growing at its fastest rate since July 2022, following this morning's stronger than expected ADP number. Despite the positivity, one potential sign of concern was an uptick in the prices paid for inputs portion, perhaps a sign of lingering inflation.

The U.S. service sector showed overall growth in April, with this morning's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI climbing to 51.9 in April, up from the 51.2 seen in March and coming in slightly above analyst estimates of a 51.8 reading. This was driven largely by a sharp increase in new orders as well as the best supplier delivery performance seen since December 2015. However, the headline number's positivity does hide some negativity. The Business Activity portion of the index fell to 52 in April, well below forecasts of a 54.5 reading. This was a sharp drop from the month prior's 55.4 and marks the lowest reading seen since May 2020 in the heart of the initial pandemic fallout. In another potential sign of lingering inflationary pressures, the Prices Paid portion of the index rose slightly from March, the first increase seen since mid-2022.

Multiple media outlets are reporting a potential assassination attempt on Russian President Vladimir Putin overnight, as footage of a drone exploding over the Kremlin circulates on social media. With the tremendous amount of security surrounding the complex in central Moscow, it's very surprising that a drone could have made it as close as it did. Russian officials immediately blamed the attempt on Ukraine, who denies any involvement and suggests the attack must have come from within Russia, as dissent in the country has grown considerably since it launched its invasion over a year ago. In response, the Russian government said they "reserve the right to take retaliatory measures." While it's still much too soon to know what truly happened, Russia has a long history of false flag operations to provide justification for unprovoked attacks, and some Ukrainian officials fear this may be an attempt to provide pretext for escalating their attacks within Ukraine. After somewhat of a lull, Russia has picked up their long range strikes on civilians far from the frontlines in the last week. With an expected spring counteroffensive from Ukraine and Russia's May 9 "Victory Day" holiday both looming, it appears that the fighting is set to intensify further. With Russia still suggesting they will not renew the Black Sea export corridor agreement past May 18, this escalation has the potential to cause significant impacts to the grain markets if Ukrainian grain is again cut off from the global market as it was early in the war and this could be one of the causes of the rally we're seeing in the wheat market today.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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