Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 May 2023, 17:05

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 30 - Stocks are mixed at midday as traders monitor progress of the debt ceiling deal reached on Sunday as it makes its way through the rules committee in the House of Representatives. Nvidia provides support for the tech sector, but stocks are otherwise under modest pressure, with the broader commodity sector under pressures as well. The VIX is trading near 18 at midday, with the dollar index trading near 104.1 in relatively active trading. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.71%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%. Crude oil prices are down by more than 4% on worries over the U.S. debt ceiling talks and this week's OPEC+ meeting, while the grain and oilseed sector is sharply lower today as well. Managed money is bearish both of these two sectors on worries that lingering sticky inflation, high interest rates and rising debt are curbing demand for the commodities.

Corn prices provided the stability for the grain and oilseed sector over the past 10 days to two weeks on rapidly developing dryness across the Midwest. However, the longer-term atmospheric signals started hinting at increased chances for rain as we get into the second week of June, and those signals showed up more significantly in the weather models over the three-day holiday weekend. Not all models agree, but the trend is definitely there. We should get the first condition ratings for the corn crop this afternoon, and it will likely show the impact of the current dryness, but the wetter outlook removed the one factor providing stability for the grain and oilseed markets, allowing prices to tumble today, with the momentum-selling Algos piling on sell orders as well. Now it comes down to this afternoon's crop ratings and updated forecast models to see if that momentum can be turned.

USDA inspected 51.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending May 25, as shown in the graphic below, along with 14.0 million bushels of wheat, 8.8 million bushels of soybeans, and 1.3 million bushels of grain sorghum. The portion of the above that was inspected for shipment to China included 18.4 million bushels of corn, 0.07 million bushels of soybeans and 0.007 million bushels of wheat. Soybean shipments to China are largely shutdown as the big Brazilian crop dominates the market, while the same will likely be the case in another few weeks for corn as well. Marketing year to date corn export shipments to all destinations fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 92 million bushels, which is an improvement from the shortfall of 107 million bushels a week ago, but I anticipate that we will be losing those big Chinese shipments currently helping the cause over the coming weeks. The earliest of the fields has been harvested in Brazil, and the yields are quite impressive. China has been canceling U.S. purchases, and shipments should drop off as a result in the weeks ahead. Furthermore, China just completed a new phytosanitary agreement this week to permit importing Argentine corn, which is currently being harvested. That will provide one more source for China to buy corn while avoiding U.S. sources, although the tightness of Argentine supplies might result in other customers coming our way if China grabs market share. Marketing year to date soybean export shipments still exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 47 million bushels, although that surplus continues to slowly erode in the absence of Chinese business.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

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Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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