Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 04 May 2026, 17:23

May 4 - Middle East headlines continue to drive the narrative on Wall Street today, with the equities under pressure and many of the food and energy-based commodities seeing positive money flow. The major stock indices were generally down 1% or less at midday, while the commodities were seeing more substantial moves. The VIX is trading just under 19 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 98.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, representing a five-week high, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.97%. WTI crude oil is trading near $106 while Brent trades near $114 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector is mostly higher, led by the soybean complex.

It all started on Sunday when President Trump posted that the United States would start guiding ships trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz today, allowing them to finally be free to travel to wherever they need to go. Iran stated this morning that it hit a U.S. ship with a missile, which the United States denied. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on TV to say that the United States is in absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz, upping the ante. The U.S. started guiding ships through the Strait, with at least two U.S. flagged ships exiting the Strait thus far. Iran started attacking the United Arabe Emirates with missiles and drones. The UAE reportedly was successful in stopping the missiles with its defense network, but drones were apparently successful at doing at least some damage to its Fujairah petroleum industrial site. That led the UAE to declare that it has a right to defend itself. Unconfirmed reports are emerging that the UAE is putting together an Arab coalition to attempt an overthrow of Iran's ruling regime. This is all part of the "Fog of War" and we'll likely see a lot of false reports going forward. But one thing is clear - which is what the markets are responding to - is that we may be entering a new phase for the Iran war this week. It may prove to be the beginning of the end of the war, or a broadening of the conflict across more of the region.

Energy prices are rising today on the risks that this proves to be the beginning of a broader conflict, with the food-based commodities doing so as well. Anything that negatively impacts global energy supplies coming from the region does the same for global fertilizer supplies. This will likely prove to be a pivotal week, either for seeing Iran weakened and the Strait of Hormuz reopened for global economic activity, or to see longer term deficits develop for energy and for fertilizer. Soybean oil led the soybean complex higher early today, as corn and wheat prices pulled back. The strength in soyoil was largely tied to strong demand for biofuel feedstock, supporting record crush margins that incentivized crushers to lock in soybean supplies for crushing this summer. But corn and wheat prices joined in the strength as the conflict in the Middle East heated up, raising fears of a more prolonged conflict that could significantly curtail fertilizer supplies for the global 2027 crops. I should add that wheat is struggling to sustain those gains, as prices have already rallied significantly during this conflict and global supplies are ample near-term. Those fears could ease if Iran becomes the loser this week, but they could intensify if Iran is successful in turning this into a regional war pitting various Middle East factions against one another. Corn prices received an additional boost today when USDA announced that it inspected 79.8 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending April 30, along with 16.5 million bushels of soybeans, 16 million bushels of wheat, and 5.6 million bushels of grain sorghum. The graphic below shows this to be the week when the seasonal pace for export shipments tends to peak, so the pace of actual shipments going forward will say a lot about where we're headed with this corn market.

Grains & Oilseeds

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