Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 07 May 2026, 16:44

May 7 – A more cautious tone has settled in at midday, with stocks paring early session gains as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both turn into the red while the tech-heavy Nasdaq clings to small gains and the VIX remains relatively muted as it trades near the 17.5 level. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghei told Tasnim News today that “Iran has not yet reached a final conclusion, and no response has been given to the American side,” in reference to the one-page U.S. proposal to end hostilities. There have been unconfirmed reports of Iran rejecting the proposal while details of alleged rules laid out by Iran’s newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” for vessels transiting the Strait are also being circulated. In short, the fog of war remains, with earnings strength and largely positive U.S. economic data underpinning an optimistic sentiment on Wall Street, but uncertainty regarding the potential end to the conflict providing some amount of headwind. Elsewhere, the dollar remains very quiet, sitting just below unchanged on the day to trade near 97.94. Treasuries have moved narrowly into the green at midday, with 10-year yields climbing above 4.37% and 2-year yields pushing above 3.89%. Crude oil prices have pared morning losses amid the cautious tone settling in, with nearby WTI still in the red but now down only ~1.8% on the day as it trades near $94.50 while Brent futures are now down only 1.5% to trade at $99.75. The ags are mostly sharply lower at midday, led down by an ugly selloff in KC wheat, though both soybean meal and lean hog futures continue to cling to small gains.

Construction spending in the U.S. rose 0.6% month-over-month in March, well above the expected 0.2% gain and marking the first monthly expansion seen since December. The uptick was driven by a 0.8% monthly gain in private construction more than offsetting a 0.2% monthly decline in public construction. By segment, the overall strength was driven by residential construction, up 1.7% month-over-month, primarily in new single-family projects (+2.7%), more than offsetting a 0.2% drop in non-residential structures.

Consumer inflation expectations continue to rise, with this morning’s release from the New York Fed showing an uptick in median year-ahead expectations to 3.6% in April. This is up from 3.4% in March and is now tied with March/April 2025 for the highest readings since the tail-end of 2023. We’ll get another update on consumer sentiment with the more closely watched University of Michigan Survey of Consumers preliminary May data due out tomorrow morning.

U.S. exporters sold only 5.2 million bushels of old crop (‘25/’26) soybeans in the week ending April 30^th, coming in below the low-end trade estimate of 7.3 million and representing a new marketing year low. Cumulative marketing-year-to-date soybean sales sit at only 1.430 billion bushels, down 18.2% year-over-year and a further 25.2% below the previous five-year average for this point in time, continuing to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s now 13-year low export target of 1.540 billion bushels. Simply put, it’s hard to see much more export demand for old crop soybean exports from the U.S. amid record supplies of cheaper South American beans, barring them being included in a potential trade deal with China at next week’s Trump/Xi meeting. However, it’s crucial to note that while export demand for U.S. soybeans is dismal, it’s also not as important to the balance sheet as it once was, with record (and still expanding) domestic crush now being the dominant demand category, accounting for 61.2% of total U.S. soybean demand in the current marketing year, easily a new high for the 2000’s.

Weekly old crop corn sales of 53.6 million bushels were in line with expectations, pushing cumulative marketing-year-to-date corn sales past the 3-billion-bushel mark for the first time in history as we continue on the path to easily set a new all-time high for U.S. corn exports in the ‘25/’26 marketing year. USDA has raised their estimate for ‘25/’26 corn exports five times since their initial 2.675 billion bushels to now sit at 3.300 billion bushels; barring a major slowdown in sales and inspections in the weeks/months ahead, don’t be surprised if they’re forced to increase yet again. All wheat sales for ‘25/’26 fell to a five-week low at 2.9 million bushels, but new crop (‘26/’27) sales of 6.9 million bushels offset that weakness, with the combined total effectively falling right in the middle of the expected range. USDA may also be forced to raise their current ‘25/’26 wheat export target from its current 900 million bushels, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that ‘26/’27 export ideas may be a bit light given the recent rally making the U.S. look expensive relative to our competitors (though this week’s sharp losses are shifting that calculus a bit). Net milo (sorghum) sales fell to zero in the week ending April 30^th, the lowest since mid-November.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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