Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 14 Nov 2022, 16:51

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

November 14 - Stocks are mixed again at mid-day, reversing course from Friday's trade with the Dow Jones up slightly while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both trade lower. The VIX is up slightly, trading just above 23, while the dollar is attempting to bounce back from last week's collapse, trading near 106.7 at the time of writing. Yields on 10-year treasuries are up on the day, trading just under 3.9%, while yields on 2-year treasuries are up near 4.42%. Crude oil is down slightly, with the Dec WTI contract trading around $87.25, while the ags are mixed.

President Biden sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping for a three hour meeting ahead of this week's G20 summit in Bali, their first in-person meeting since Biden took office. The meeting seemingly went well, with both sides acknowledging the recent tensions and need for improved communication and cooperation. President Xi was quoted as saying "we need to chart the right course for the China/U.S. relationship" and that he "looks forward to working with Biden to bring the relationship back on the right track." It wasn't all smiles, as the two sides touched on China's aggression towards Taiwan, their growing economic isolation, North Korea's accelerated weapons testing and threats, as well as reported human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. Though one in-person meeting isn't going to mend the growing tensions between the world's two largest economies overnight, it was certainly a step in the right direction. With the countries' deep economic ties, improved relations between the two sides would certainly help to calm market fears.

No breakthroughs came from the U.N./Russia negotiations that took place in Geneva on Friday, with the existing Ukrainian export corridor deal still set to expire Saturday if no agreement can be made. With recent battlefield losses, Russia seems to be looking for any way possible to punish Ukraine and its struggling economy. Russia has been persistent with their threats to back out of the deal if their own interests are not met, mostly regarding the export of their own food and fertilizer. Russian fertilizer has still been able to find homes all over the world in 2022, though they've often had to take more expensive routes to hit the global market and many countries have opted to continue not doing business with Russia despite the lifting of sanctions.

Sticking with Russia, there are reports this morning that CIA Director William Burns is meeting with his Russian intelligence counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, in Ankara, Turkey. This is the first (known) in person meeting of officials at this high of a level between the U.S. and Russia since their invasion of Ukraine back in February. The U.S. has told Ukraine that it wouldn't discuss the war without a Ukrainian representative present, but the meeting is reportedly set to include a warning to Russia regarding the consequences it would face for using a nuclear weapon. The two sides have other issues to discuss as well, including prisoner swaps and their involvement in the ongoing civil war in Syria.

OPEC dropped its forecast for global crude oil consumption due to a combination of global economic concerns, an uncertain geopolitical climate, and persisting supply chain constraints. OPEC now expects 2022 global oil consumption to grow by 2.55 million barrels per day, a drop of 100,000 barrels per day from their October forecast. The group also lowered their 2023 outlook by the same 100,000 barrels per day, with expected growth now at 2.24 million for next year. OPEC's decision to cut production last month drew criticism from the U.S., specifically growing tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil markets haven't shown any aggressive reaction to today's news, however, with both Brent and WTI futures maintaining slight losses through the morning.

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