Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 26 Nov 2025, 18:18

November 26 - Everyone is upbeat ahead of Thanksgiving. Well, maybe not everyone, but sentiment certainly leans that way ahead of the holiday break. The U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, while opening for a shortened session on Friday. Many traders have already loaded up the kids to head to grandma's house for the holiday, leading to a drop in volume for many of the markets. That in turn can amplify moves, aided by the momentum trading Algos, when the remaining traders end up on the same side of the trade.

Stocks pushed higher this morning on the continued theme of optimism around expectations that the Federal Reserve will again cut its benchmark interest rate when it meets in two weeks. The CME FedWatch now reflects market expectations of 83% odds of another rate cut on December 10. The VIX is at a two-week low just above 17 at midday, reflecting easing concerns on Wall Street, while the dollar index is trading near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. The rumor on the Street is that Kevin Hassett - President Trump's chief economic advisor - is the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell at the head of the Federal Reserve in May. Hassett is on the record favoring more aggressive rate cuts. The White House hints that Trump may name his nominee for the position ahead of Christmas. That's impacting the Treasury markets. As for the commodities, crude oil prices continue to trade very quietly today on either side of unchanged, while the grain and oilseed markets found new life from reports of additional Chinese buying following this week's phone conversation between President Trump and President Xi.

The Chicago area purchasing managers index fell to 36.3 for November, down from 43.8 previously, and below market expectations of 44.3. A number below "50" indicates month-on-month contraction. It was the 24th consecutive month of seeing contraction in the Chicago region, and the sharpest one-month decline since May 2020. The drop was largely driven by declines in order backlogs and new orders, as well as drops in production and employment. Order backlogs are now at their lowest level since March 2009 for the Chicago region, while the new orders index is at its lowest level since last December.

Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 2.8 million to 426.9 million barrels in the week ending November 21, putting them roughly 4% below the five-year average for mid-November. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.5 million barrels, leaving them 3% below typical levels for mid-November. Distillate stocks rose by 1.1 million barrels, leaving them 5% below seasonal levels. Ethanol stocks slipped to 22.0 million barrels in the week ending November 26, down from 22.3 million the previous week, and down from 22.9 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production rose to 1,113K barrels per day last week, up from 1,091K bpd the previous week, although just below the 1,119K bpd produced in the same week last year. Record production for ethanol is just above that level at 1,123K bpd, accomplished just three weeks ago. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 108.4 million bushels of corn last week, as shown below, up from 106.2 million bushels the previous week, but down from 111.7 million bushels in the same week last year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for ethanol production totals 1.228 billion bushels, down 28 million bushels or 2.2% from the previous year's pace, largely due to increased efficiencies in producing ethanol. The year-to-date pace falls roughly 24 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target of 5.600 billion bushels, and the deficit continues to grow week to week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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