Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 03 Nov 2022, 16:04

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 3 - A strong dollar amid rate hike fears continued to create headwinds for both stocks and for commodity prices, although some individual assets managed to firm despite those factors. The VIX continues to trade near 26, indicating that the Federal Reserve's statements on Wednesday may have failed to ease concerns of traders, but it didn't materially add to the panic factor. The dollar index is trading near 112.9 as we approach midday, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. Crude oil prices are down by more than 1%, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly lower.

Wheat prices fell sharply yesterday when Russia rejoined the trade agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain out of three ports, with follow-through selling overnight. Prices erased the premium added earlier this week on tight supply fears, taking them back to Friday's values. However, that's where buying returned. Friday's values are currently seen as an area of support for the market, leading to buyers returning to trade the range. The market appears uncomfortable pressing prices to new lows for the move as long as Russian President Putin is threatening to not extend the agreement beyond its November 19 expiration. Today's rebound was sufficient to post modest gains in the wheat market at times. Corn prices also bounced off the bottom of the recent trading range, but they continue to post modest losses. The soyoil market continues to press higher, but notably lower meal prices were sufficient to keep soybean prices in the red as we approached midday. The protein complex was mixed in a day of consolidation, although the strong dollar is certainly creating headwinds for cattle and hog futures.

Exporters sold 30.5 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending October 27, as shown below, along with 14.7 million bushels of corn, 12.8 million bushels of wheat and 0.5 million bushels of grain sorghum. None of the above numbers were strong enough to impress traders. The below graphic shows the past week's net soybean sales versus sales in the same week over the past quarter century. This morning's weekly USDA export sales report also included news that China cancelled a cargo of previously purchased corn. As for soybeans, China was a net buyer of 27.4 million bushels of U.S. soybeans during the week reported, although 14.9 million of that total was a mere shift from previous sale to "unknown destinations," while China cancelled purchases of another 7.8 million bushels. Chinese buyers report that they're able to get South American soybeans for up to $1.60 per bushel less than U.S. supplies due to a) the strong dollar and b) strong Gulf FOB prices due to low water levels on the Mississippi River. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.187 billion bushels as of October 27, which falls 64 million bushels short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, and the deficit is growing. Marketing year to date corn export sales total just 570 million bushels, which is the fourth lowest of the past two decades for the date. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 322 million bushels, and the deficit continues to grow. Again, the strong dollar and low water levels on the Mississippi River are rationing demand for U.S. corn as long as South American supplies are available.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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