Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 30 Nov 2023, 16:51

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 30 - Early stock gains slowly eroded as we moved through the morning, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a fresh high for 2023 following data released this morning showing cooling inflation pressures. Yet, traders also took note of a bearish reversal in energy prices, with crude oil down roughly 3%, despite additional output cuts from OPEC+ in its virtual meeting today. Reports from OPEC+ indicate that Brazil will be joining the cartel in January, and that the cartel will cut output by 1 million barrels per day, in addition to the voluntary 1 million-bpd cut currently being done by Saudi Arabia that it will roll into the new calendar year. OPEC+ output is currently near 43 million bpd, which is already down 5 million bpd from previous production levels, reflecting weak global demand conditions. The VIX is trading above 13 at midday, although that's still at a historically low level. The dollar index is notably higher near 103.3 as Treasury yields rebound following their recent drop to multi-month lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, after finding support near yesterday's low, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, following a similar pattern. Crude oil prices are down as demand concerns continue to hang over the market, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed.

It was a good week of export sales in the United States in the week ending November 23, with exporters selling a net 69.6 million bushels of soybeans, as shown below, along with 75.9 million bushels of corn, 22.9 million bushels of old-crop wheat, and 7.3 million bushels of grain sorghum. China was a featured buyer during the week, grabbing a net 35.1 million bushels of soybeans, 5.2 million bushels of corn, 7.2 million bushels of wheat and 9.5 million bushels of grain sorghum in the week that followed President Xi Jinping's meeting with President Joe Biden. The surge in buying came as prices for corn and wheat hit multi-year lows, and as ocean freight rates began to pop. The rise in freight rates would suggest that world buyers saw opportunities at the multi-year lows, although it's yet to be determined if this demand can be sustained if we see much of a rebound in prices.

Globally, the markets continue to be in a general deflationary cycle, with the funds maintaining sizeable short positions. Yet, every fund manager with a sizeable short position gets increasingly nervous the lower prices go, knowing that the risk of an unexpected headline taking prices higher increases the lower that prices go. The corn and wheat markets have tried to carve out a bottom several times in recent months, and each time prices ended up making new lows. Yet, the possibility that this is the feared / sought after low was good for end user buying and speculative short covering today. Soybeans continue to be focused on Brazil weather, with a great deal of uncertainty continuing to hang over the market regarding the size of the Brazil crop. StoneX Brazil is scheduled to release the results of its latest customer production survey tomorrow morning, which will provide a few more answers to the above questions. The final impact of this year's Brazil weather on its crops will have a substantial impact on the outlook for the U.S. market going forward.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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