Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 04 Nov 2025, 18:46

Today's Perspective Video: USDA Correction Coming

November 4 - Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs executives made cautionary statements regarding the equity markets trading at these high levels, leading to the overnight selloff in equities that continues into today's trade. It's the type of comment that makes traders nervous whenever they find themselves leaning hard in one direction, and that was the case this time as well. Corrections are common in the markets, and this may simply be a correction after hitting new record highs last week. But for today, stocks are generally down 1 to 2%, as investors step back to reassess. The VIX spiked to near 20.5 overnight on the selloff, but it is now trading two points lower near 19.2. The dollar index is trading near 100.2 - on the cusp of testing its August high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.09%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.58%. Crude oil prices are weaker, although they continue to consolidate above $60 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector is mostly lower as well, with the exception of soft red wheat that reportedly garnered some China business.

USDA Secretary Rollins continues to hold meetings with Mexican authorities over the containment of the New World Screwworm in Mexico. The border with Mexico remains closed to cattle coming north to be fed in U.S. feedlots, and Rollins indicates that she is not interested in reopening the border currently - the risks to the U.S. cattle industry remain too high. The NWS was last eradicated from the United States in 1966. However, Rollins did indicate that President Trump is "very focused" on reopening the border to increase beef supplies within the United States, while also saying that she is pleased with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest. Rollins has previously been critical of Mexico's efforts, but Mexico has responded well to U.S. requests for tighter controls. Rollins is in Mexico City to meet with President Sheinbaum regarding this and other issues.

USDA stated late Friday that it has found a way to produce both the NASS production and WASDE supply and demand reports despite the partial government shutdown. Those reports will be released on November 14 instead of November 10 as originally scheduled. The biggest focus will be on USDA's corn and soybean production reports after the dry finish to the growing season that also included considerable disease pressure for the corn crop. Yield potential was quite high early in the season, but the prevailing question has been, how much of that potential was lost. StoneX released its November customer survey yesterday revealing that not much was lost according to our customers, pegging the corn crop at 186 bushels per acre, versus USDA at 186.7 bpa in September. Yes, there are many regions that saw significant losses, but there are also many regions that blew away their previous records. It's always a challenge to put together anecdotal reports, so more comprehensive surveys help to smooth that out some. USDA does the most complete survey, combined with its field sampling. Unfortunately, USDA will have far less data on field sampling this year because its field scouts have largely been sidelined by the shutdown. As such, USDA will be leaning much heavier than normal on the farmer surveys, which will then be adjusted to fit with the stocks survey results in December for final yield reports in January - assuming the government is open. The graphic below shows the history of USDA's yield changes from September to November over the past 32 years. Note that yield changes over that period trended much smaller in recent years. The big anomaly out of all of this was the record large 3.8 bushels downward adjustment in January this past year, which largely debunked by the stocks miss on September 30. Yet, USDA didn't want to correct that January yield change, so next week's WASDE will have to show a cut in feed usage.

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