Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 21 Oct 2022, 15:14

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

October 21 - Stocks are attempting to rally off morning lows, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both in the green while the Nasdaq trades slightly lower at the time of writing. An ugly finish yesterday afternoon carried downward momentum into the morning but the market is attempting to show resiliency and push higher as it did yesterday morning, though the headwinds proved too strong. The VIX has fallen slightly below 30 for the first time this week, potentially indicating a slight easing of fears as we head into the weekend. The U.S. dollar is now in the red after a sharp morning rally, trading near 112.7 at the time of writing, well below this morning's high of 113.942. Yields on 10-year treasuries are trading near 4.25%, while yields on 2-year treasuries trade around 4.53%. Crude oil has traded both sides of unchanged this morning, though the Dec WTI contract is now slightly in the red near $84.40 per barrel. The ags are battling back from morning losses, with soybeans and canola breaking into the green while corn is mixed and the wheat complex remains in the red across the board.

Hawkish comments from the Philadelphia Fed yesterday reversed morning gains and pushed stock futures lower into the close. Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker warned yesterday that "given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% (target rate) by the end of the year." Markets are now pricing in an almost 100% chance of yet another consecutive 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed's November meeting. However, there is some hope for a smaller than 75 point hike at the Fed's December meeting. Regardless, his comments came following the release of bearish October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data and led to a further spike in treasury yields. Yields on 10-year treasuries surged to a fresh 15-year high of 4.335%, though they've fallen back near 4.25%, still a very elevated level relative to recent history. Despite all the efforts seen so far this year, that soft landing the Fed has been targeting continues to look more and more difficult to obtain.

Ukrainian officials warned today of Russia's plan to blow up the enormous Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. The dam includes a hydroelectric power plant and also creates the massive reservoir from which the embattled Zaporizhia nuclear power plant draws water for its cooling system. This reservoir is also crucial for irrigation used in agriculture in some of the better-producing ground in southern Ukraine. Russia's military has been furiously targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure this month in hopes of breaking the people's will with a harsh winter. Destroying the dam would reportedly flood over 80 cities, towns, and villages, impacting hundreds of thousands of civilians. It would also flood the city of Kherson, the focal point of the fighting in Southern Ukraine at the moment. As Ukrainian forces continue to make battlefield advances, it could be a last-ditch effort to punish civilians with scorched earth tactics as they retreat. Looking back in history, this is a strategy the Russians have employed before. In 1941, Soviet forces unexpectedly dynamited the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station dam as they retreated from the Nazis, causing severe flooding that killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians in the process. President Zelensky today asked the West to warn Russia that doing so would be treated the same the use of weapons of mass destruction due to the devastation it would cause. Unfortunately, it seems the escalations in the war don't appear to be slowing any time soon.

Social media stocks are plunging and weighed on markets initially this morning, with Snap Inc leading the way down close to 30% at one point following disappointing third quarter results and a poor fourth quarter outlook. Elon Musk's announcement that he may cut as much as 75% of Twitter's workforce also sent shockwaves through the social media market, with Twitter shares falling over 4% on the day. The negative sentiment through the sector is pushing others lower, with Facebook's parent company, Meta, down near 4.5% and Pinterest Inc. down 8% at the time of writing.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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