Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 23 Oct 2025, 16:26

Today's Perspective Video: November WASDE is at Risk

October 23 – The U.S. has sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, who combine to account for over 5% of global oil production. This notable ramp-up in pressure on Russia comes after the decision to suspend the potential meeting this week between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Hungary to discuss the prospect of bringing the war in Ukraine to an end, with Trump noting the lack of legitimate progress made thus far despite previous talks. The move has been met with expected outrage from Russia, as oil and gas revenues are by far the most important source of funding for the country’s government and, in turn, their war effort, accounting for roughly one-quarter of their budget. It’s also worth keeping in mind the added impact of these fresh sanctions given the fact that the U.S. had already sanctioned Russia’s third and fourth largest producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, in early 2025. These four companies combined account for roughly 7% - 8% of global oil output.

The crude oil market has rallied sharply in response, with nearby WTI adding another 4.2% after yesterday’s gains to trade near $62/barrel at the time of writing, up over 10% from Monday’s low. Meanwhile, the stock market is pushing higher at mid-day, with the Nasdaq leading the way, followed by the S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The VIX is cooling notably today after spiking above 21 yesterday, hovering back below the 18 level at the time of writing. The dollar is ever so slightly in the green, sitting around 98.98 after putting in a week-plus high yesterday before falling off to end the day in the red. The grains and oilseeds are largely higher at mid-day, with November 2025 soybeans putting in a fresh month-plus high today as optimism over a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China continues to rise—more on that below.

This decision also adds another layer of complexity to anticipated upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China, as China remains one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil (along with India, Turkey, and to a lesser extent, Hungary and Slovakia). Chinese state oil majors today suspended purchases of seaborn Russian oil in response to the new U.S. sanctions. This does look to have some impact on overall Chinese demand for Russian crude in the near-term, but it’s important to also recognize that much of China’s current purchases are not by state-owned firms, but rather independent refiners (sometimes referred to as teapot refiners). Additionally, much of China’s Russian oil imports are brought in via pipeline (~900k bpd) and are expected to see minimal impact. On the U.S. trade front, Beijing today confirmed that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is set to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Malaysia over the weekend. This is an important first step towards confirming an in person meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea late next week, with considerable implications for the entire global economy. Could China’s quick announcement suspending purchases of Russian oil in response to the U.S. sanctions be a signal of a willingness to ease tensions ahead of these talks?

Both feeder and live cattle futures are attempting a rebound this morning after yesterday’s sharp losses following the release of USDA’s herd rebuilding plan and President Trump’s social media post saying ranchers “have to get their prices down.” It’s frivolous to treat the current upcycle in beef prices as a new event instead of part of an ongoing longer-term issue. As shown in the below chart, the tightness in U.S. beef fundamentals is in large part a function of the divergence in U.S. beef supply and demand seen in the last few years. USDA is pegging this year’s expected domestic consumption at a second consecutive all-time high, up 0.8% year-over-year, while domestic production is seen at an 8-year low, down 1.1% year-over-year. Looking back a little further, U.S. beef production is down 5.7% from its recent peak in 2022, with consumption up 2.8% over the same span. This puts the deficit between U.S. beef production and consumption at its widest level in 20 years. The measures announced for helping rebuild the U.S. cattle herd should help the industry in the longer-term, but again we must emphasize this is not a quick fix, it’s part of a longer-term problem. Those actually involved in the industry recognize that fact, but the fear of the cattle complex being caught in the crosshairs of the administration is likely enough to scare some speculative longs out, contributing to the downside pressure being seen.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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