Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 14:56

Today's Perspective Video: Are We On the Cusp of a China Trade Deal?

October 29 - Nvidia topped a $5 trillion valuation today, helping boost the major stock indices to fresh record highs ahead of this afternoon's anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and ahead of tomorrow's anticipated trade deal signing with China. Yet, the VIX inched higher to trade near 17 in early trade, while the dollar index is trading near 98.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.99%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.50%. Crude oil prices are nearly 1% higher mid-morning, while the grain and oilseed markets are quietly mixed today.

Tonight's trade deal signing with President Xi of China is expected to focus on fentanyl and soybeans. President Trump is expected to cut his 20% fentanyl tariff in half in exchange for China further restricting the export of the key components used to produce the drug. There's also an expectation that China will agree to purchase 30 - 50 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over a three-year period. Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans peaked at 33.7 mmt in calendar year 2016. They hit a low of 16.6 mmt in calendar year 2018 due to a combination of the first Trump trade war and due to the devastation of its hog herd by African Swine Fever. It rebounded to 32.3 mmt in calendar year 2021, but it has been in decline ever since, falling to just 16.8 mmt in the current calendar year. Each 1 mmt equals 36.74 million bushels of soybeans. Meanwhile, Chinese investment in Brazil agriculture has steadily increased its dependence on supplies from that nation over the past 20 years. Chinese buying of Brazilian soybeans totaled just 11.6 mmt in calendar year 2006, but it has steadily grown to a high of 74.6 mmt in calendar year 2024, accelerating as Brazil's real lost value making Brazilian soybeans cheaper to purchase.

Let's take the top end of that rumor about this week's agreement - 50 mmt. Let's assume that China buys 10 mmt over the next two months to fill what Brazil is unable to do this year. (Next year's crop is expected to be 10 mmt larger.) Then let's assume that it buys 20 mmt in each of the next two years. That's pretty disappointing relative to recent years, but it's probably 50 mmt of business that we were not going to get. Furthermore, it's probably enough to stimulate the need to expand soybean acreage next year, considering the growth in domestic demand based on the anticipated final rules for the biofuel program. I've said for years that China's appetite for U.S. soybeans was going away. That's been one of the big focuses of developing the biofuel program here in the States - to replace that business. The biofuel program isn't quite developed enough yet this year to replace that Chinese business, but it could be a few years from now. Such a trade deal with China as rumored above could help fill that gap if it happens. Of course, the primary problem may be enforcement. China only bought 58% of what it committed to buy in the Phase One agreement during Trump 1.0. Meanwhile, it's bearish for Brazil soybean demand.

Receiving little talk is grain sorghum. Plains farmers desperately need China to buy better than 3 mmt of U.S. grain sorghum sitting in piles and bins after this year's big harvest. It's been well over a year since China made any note worthy purchases of U.S. grain sorghum. USDA forecasts grain sorghum exports at 225 million bushels in the current marketing year, but exports only totaled 95 million bushels in the absence of Chinese purchases last year. That has industry leaders questioning where that demand will come from?

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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