Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 11 Sept 2023, 17:00

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 11 - Stocks continue to drift with modest gains, supported by strength in Tesla stocks, as traders wait for key inflation and retail sales data to be released later this week, ahead of next week's big Federal Reserve meeting. The VIX slipped below 14 midday, while the dollar index is notably lower below 104.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.28%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.98%. Crude oil prices are mixed to higher after probing to fresh nine-month highs earlier in the session. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed today. Wheat prices fell to fresh lows for the move in Chicago and Kansas City on cheap Russian wheat continuing to hit the world market at a record pace, and weak demand for U.S. wheat at current prices. Corn and soybean prices are mixed to firm as traders anticipate USDA lowering its yield estimates in tomorrow's big USDA WASDE crop report.

We're currently experiencing the effects of a moderate El Nino that's starting to take control of weather patterns across the Western Hemisphere. Tomorrow's focus will be on USDA's crop production estimates here in the United States, but the focus will soon be shifting south of the equator to Argentina and Brazil. Argentina should finally see some good crops after La Nina shortened crops in recent years, whereas the story is mixed for Brazil. The key to Brazil's crop production is to remember that the monsoon rains tend to start late and to end early for northern growing areas of Brazil in El Nino weather patterns, while good rains fall in the south. Every El Nino has its own personality, but that tends to be the case, especially when it is a strong easterly biased El Nino as it currently is this year.

So what does that mean for the upcoming crop year in Brazil? First, we anticipate a late start for the monsoon rains needed to supply crops in Brazil's highly-productive Center-West region with the moisture needed to raise a crop. Farmers in this area (except for 48 farmers given a waiver this year to start on September 1st) are not allowed to start planting soybeans prior to September 15 to help break the Asian rust cycle. But the bigger factor this year is rainfall. Heavy rains continue to plague southern Brazil, which is typical for El Nino, but the Center-West region continues to get spotty showers. Farmers there generally want to see enough rain to establish the crop prior to planting, and that means the start of the monsoon rains. As such, the expectation is that this year's soybean crop will get planted late. That doesn't mean a short crop. Brazil has grown big crops when planted late. Planting date doesn't determine crop size, but rainfall generally does. The left graphic below is a multi-model composite forecast from NOAA for October, November and December. It reflects expectations for below normal rainfall for the Center-West area of Brazil. But this region normally gets much more rain than needed to grow a crop, once the monsoon rains arrive. It comes down to distribution and timeliness of those rains. The greater concern is the safrinha corn crop that is planted after those soybeans are harvested in February and March. The graphic on the right represents a multi-model composite for February, March and April, and it reflects the expectations of an early end to the monsoon rains. Late-planted soybeans, leading to a late-planted corn crop significantly raises risks for Brazil corn production nine months from now. Don't expect the market to worry about that for a while, but that's a factor to monitor longer-term.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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