Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 17 Sept 2025, 15:58

Today's Perspective Video: More Chinese Trade Deal Rumors

September 17 - We saw a modest risk-off sentiment across many markets today as investors anxiously wait for this afternoon's monetary policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Wall Street expectations for the Fed have become increasingly dovish in recent days, raising the risk that it might find a surprise in the central bank's assessment of the economy, and the future of monetary policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut is fully expected on the Street today, but will the analysis and dot plot graphic meet those dovish expectations? That's the risk that traders are wrestling with in the hours prior to the 2 p.m. EDT statement release.

Stocks were mixed to weaker through much of the morning as they consolidate just below recent record highs. The VIX inched upward toward 17, but remained below it this morning. The dollar index bounced modestly from yesterday's 11-week lows to trade near 96.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries continued to consolidate just above 4% as they traded near 4.04%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. Commodity prices generally faced headwinds this morning as well, with crude oil prices modestly weaker, while the same was also true for the grain and oilseed sector.

Soyoil prices fell more than 2% today, reflecting disappointment that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency again kicked the can down the road in finalizing biofuel policy. The industry hoped to get final clarity on small refinery exemption reallocation and the proposed 50% RIN credit on imported feedstock by late October, but the EPA's request for comments over the next 45 days on several different options for reallocation, including one option that opens the door to zero reallocations, means that the EPA is no closer to finalizing biofuel policy than it was this summer, leaving biomass diesel production on hold possibly until late year, or more, considering the bill in the Senate to prevent reallocation.

It's been dry across central and eastern portions of the Midwest, but it's been cool as well, helping to partially offset the dryness stress, or at least reduce the stress inflicted on maturing crops by the dryness. Yesterday's commentary included a graphic showing dryness ranks for the Midwest by climate reporting district versus the past 133 years. It showed that areas of the central and eastern Midwest were among the driest over the past 30 days of the past 133 years for that period. Today's graphic shows average temperature ranks. Many of the same areas seeing extreme dryness experienced top-30 coolness relative to the past 133 years, despite brief periods of heat. Crops need water to complete maturity, but they need a lot more water when it is hot than when it is cool. Now it's up to the combines to reveal how the dryness of the late growing season impacted seed size - and therefore yields - during that period amid the cooler temperatures. I still expect yields to trend lower from the latest estimates, but it could have been much worse had we had the heat as well.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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