Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 18 Sept 2025, 16:31

Today's Perspective Video: China's Soybean Pivot Raises Questions for U.S. Agriculture

September 18 - Weekly jobless claims fell the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates due to a deteriorating jobs market. One week's data doesn't a trend make, but the same thing can be said for the previous week's spike that raised cries for the rate cut. Weekly jobless claims fell to 231K in the week ending September 13, down from 264K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 246K claims. The four-week moving average slipped slightly to 240K, down from 240.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending September 6 dropped by 7K to 1.920 million, and that was a drop from the previous week that was also revised lower by 12K. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 10,250 to 1.932 million. Initial claims for unemployment benefits by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending September 6 totaled 572, up 45 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by Federal civilian workers in the week ending August 30 totaled 7,863, down 348 from the previous week.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 23.2 this month, up from -0.3 in August, and well above analyst expectations of 3.0. Indices for general activity, new orders and shipments all rose this month. The employment index was unchanged, but continuing to show growth. The survey indicated widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Oddly, the New York survey showed an opposite response on Monday, suggesting that local dynamics may be playing into more of suppressed economic activity in that region.

New record highs were seen for the major stock indices today, although they have since pulled back from those highs as the dollar rallies on the strength of 10-year Treasury yields. We saw the same thing a year ago, when yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied when the Fed started its last rate cutting cycle, triggering inflation talk amid concerns of fiscal spending problems. Two major wire services wrote stories lately about coming inflation playing out in the commodity markets, so perhaps that's getting some traction as well. The VIX is trading closer to 16 at midday, while the dollar index is trading notably higher near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are nearly 10 basis points higher than two days ago as they trade near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.57%. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker on the dollar strength as well.

Exporters sold 48.5 million bushels of corn in the week ending September 11, along with 33.9 million bushels of soybeans, 13.9 million bushels of wheat, and 4.0 million bushels of grain sorghum. We're 15 weeks into the wheat marketing year, with total export commitments sitting at 481 million bushels - 56 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. Corn commitments remain hot as well. We're only in the second week of the corn and soybean marketing years, but corn commitments already total 938 million bushels - the second largest total on record for this point in the year and up 68% from the previous year's pace. In fact, this year's total exceeds the early seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 175 million bushels, even though that target is already at a record 2.975 billion bushels. It's a different story for soybeans, where commitments to date total just 378 million bushels, down 36% from the previous year's pace, and a 17-year low for this time of year. In fact, commitments to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 252 million bushels, and the deficit is growing.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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