Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 02 Sept 2025, 17:11

Today's Perspective Video: Big Crops Get Smaller - Part 2: Drought, Demand, & Biofuels

September 2 - Stocks remain under pressure at midday, with the major indices down as much as 1.7% amid increased uncertainty following Friday's Appeals Court ruling, combined with an apparent breakdown in the trade talks with China, and with Brazil and India joining Russia in supporting China in its fight against the Trump tariffs. I cannot emphasize enough the potential significance of the weekend developments. The "possibility" exists that President Trump could lose significant leverage with other countries - although there are a couple of other legal options - if he loses the court case. The Treasury Department might be required to pay back more than $160 billion in revenues taken in by the impacted tariffs, creating challenges for the Treasury Department that could impact interest rates. Companies and countries could renege on commitments to invest in U.S. industry. We could see a long-term continuation, and possibly escalation, of the Ukraine war. We could also see an unwinding of recent trade deals reached with key trading partners, some of which have significant implications for demand for U.S. commodities. I anticipate that the Supreme Court will come out of its annual summer recess to make a relatively quick decision on the Appeals Court decision. Based on its decision track record, I could see the court going either way on this issue, leaving the markets facing elevated levels of uncertainty until we do get a ruling.

The above uncertainty weighed on stocks, while sending gold prices to new record high levels today. The VIX traded to a fresh four-week high near 19 on the increased uncertainty, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.28%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.66%. Crude oil prices are more than 2% higher at nearly four-week highs after Ukraine hit key oil infrastructure within Russia, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker at midday. Soybean prices saw the biggest losses today on the realization that we might not see Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans any time soon. The market expects the biofuel policies currently being put in place to be supportive of strong demand for soyoil, but it's going to take time to expand our crush capacity sufficiently to offset lost export business. Corn prices followed soybeans lower overnight, but prices have erased much of what they lost on the realization that we still have strong export demand. Wheat prices have remained low - near double-digit losses - on the current over-supply situation, despite strong export demand. Australia's crop is growing in size, and dryness issues in the Black Sea are not yet to the point of creating concerns for next year's crop.

USDA inspected 55.4 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending August 28, leaving just 3 days of shipments yet in the marketing year. It also inspected 17.4 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment, along with 29.5 million bushels of wheat, and 2.4 million bushels of grains sorghum. Neither USDA donations, nor grain shipped under the USMCA trade agreement, are required to be inspected - many are, but some are not. As such, final marketing year export shipments won't be known for another 4 - 6 weeks. But the inspection totals suggest that we could see USDA increase its old-crop corn export target by as much as 35 million bushels or more, while soybeans could increase by 15 million bushels, depending on non-inspected shipment totals. We could see a slight decline in the grain sorghum export target, while the wheat shipment total continues to argue for an increase in current year exports by another 20 - 25 million bushels. It should be noted that any increase in old-crop corn exports will likely be partially offset by another modest decline in ethanol use of corn for the year that just ended on August 31.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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