Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 28 Sept 2022, 16:44

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 28 - Stocks again rebounded this morning after both the dollar and Treasury yields reversed after hitting new highs. Yet, the VIX remains elevated above 31 at this hour, indicating that fear levels remain high on Wall Street. Meanwhile, traders are also monitoring Hurricane Ian, which is poised to come on land just north of Fort Myers, Florida. It is expected to cross Florida into the Atlantic before coming back on land somewhere near South Carolina. The dollar index is trading near 113.2 at this hour, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.77%, which is 25 full basis points below its session high. Crude oil prices are nearly 4% higher, while the Ags are mixed at midday.

Positive money flow from the outside markets provided tailwinds for the commodity sector, but the high VIX led traders to use caution in building ownership, while being selective in what they bought. Wheat prices led the Ags higher, with Ukraine risks remaining high. Russia continues to hold a nuclear threat over Ukraine, which would negatively impact wheat storage and production in the affected area, while risks are also growing that Russia will shut down the "safe corridor" agreement that allows grain to move out of three southern Ukraine ports. Corn supplies would also be negatively impacted by the above. However, soybean prices today succumbed to weaker-than-normal export demand combined with seasonal harvest pressure. Growing conditions in Brazil overall are excellent for the start of its growing season. The protein complex was largely under pressure at midday, as a strong dollar hurts export demand, with packer margins contracting notably for both pork and beef.

Ethanol stocks rose slightly to 22.7 million barrels in the week ending September 23, up from 22.5 million the previous week, and up from 20.2 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production fell to a 19-month low 855K barrels per day during the week, down from 901K the previous week, and down from 914K barrels per day in the same week last year. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 84.2 million bushels of corn during the week, down from 88.7 million the previous week, and down from 92.7 million the previous year.

Hurricane Ian is just offshore of central Florida's west coast at this hour, preparing to cross the peninsula to move into the Atlantic Ocean, before coming back onshore again likely somewhere in South Carolina on Friday. This takes it across four of Florida's five highest producing citrus counties, while staying to the south and east of Florida's major phosphate fertilizer production. That production can still be negatively impacted by power loss and heavy rains, but we'll have to wait until crews assess the damage before we know how long production will be down. The impact on citrus may be multi-year, depending on the level of damage to trees. Ian is expected to travel to the east of primary cotton growing areas with this track, but it is expected to impact roughly 5% of the nation's soybean production.

Hurricane Ian's anticipated wind field by Friday (left), & accumulated rainfall (right). SOURCE: Commodity Weather Group & Storm Vista

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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