Perspective: Morning Commentary December 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Dec 2025, 14:28

Today's Perspective Video: Three Pivotal Forces Shaping Ag Commodities for '26

December 15 – Stock futures bounced overnight, as Wall Street prepares for a plethora of economic data releases this week that could set the tone heading into the holidays, and into the end of the year. Investors are also keeping a close eye on potential progress in the Ukraine peace talks, which could have a significant impact on the commodities. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%. Crude oil prices were modestly weaker overnight, probing new seven-week lows. The grains were trading modestly weaker, while the oilseed complex saw modest strength.

The government will take big steps toward catching up with data releases this week following the government shutdown. We’ll see a monthly jobs report for the month of November tomorrow, which will be a big one. Add to that retail sales data, housing data, and a plethora of inflation data this week. The Federal Reserve reluctantly cut its benchmark interest rate last week – I say reluctantly because a growing number of policymakers on the board are worried about lingering inflation pressures, and the board as a whole regretted the need to act in the absence of more economic data. They love to have the cover of data for making decisions. Now they’re going to get the data, which will either confirm that they did the right thing, or it will suggest otherwise. The market will respond accordingly. The Fed won’t meet again to consider more changes to monetary policy until the end of January, but this week’s data will go a long way toward setting the tone for that meeting, and for the markets going forward.

Retail sales for China grew at a 1.3% year-on-year pace in November, down from 2.9% in October, and down from analyst expectations that it would be at 2.9%. The consumer categories seeing the largest declines included some with the largest subsidies in recent months, including home appliances that were down 19.4% on the year, cars down 8% on the year, and furniture down 3.8%. This provides more evidence of the waning influence of the government subsidies. However, these declines were largely offset by increases in electronics and digital services, where government subsidies helped them post sales that were up 20.9% year-on-year. Nonetheless, the total of these numbers show the weakness of China’s consumer buying in the absence of subsidies.

That weakness is largely driven by poor consumer confidence, which is just above record low levels due to the nation’s struggling property sector. Home prices fell again in November, dropping another 0.4% month-on-month in China’s 70 largest cities, while down another 2.8% year-on-year. New home sales by area were down 7.8% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, after being down 6.8% through the first 10 months of the year, suggesting that the decline gaining momentum downward. China has tried several things to this point to stimulate the property sector, but nothing has worked thus far with any kind of lasting results.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy continued to negotiate with President Trump’s envoys today in Berlin, with U.S. negotiators stating that “a lot of progress” was made in those talks. That weighed on crude oil prices this morning, as well as on wheat prices. Traders of both commodities are paying a lot more attention to this issue now that strikes on ships in the Black Sea region are increasing. The risk is that the war could escalate to the point that shippers would refuse to pass through the Black Sea, cutting off a major world supply source for these commodities. That risk is still low, but it’s higher today than it was last week, and slowly ratcheting higher. On the other hand, a peace agreement could remove those fears, along with removing sanctions on Russian oil.

USDA released its export sales data for the week ending November 20 this morning, as it continues to catch up with the release of data delayed by the partial government shutdown. This morning’s release included confirmation that China purchased a net 78.7 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending November 20, along with 7.2 million bushels of white wheat. The white wheat sales were largely known – the soybean sales were a bit more than we previously had confirmed. I mistakenly said last week that our cash sources put purchases to date near 7 million metric tons. I went back over the data over the weekend, and put the total near 6 mmt, or roughly half of what China reportedly committed to purchasing for 2025 – which we’re now told is 12 mmt for the 2025 “growing season.” China continues to make purchases for its reserve, while auctioning off supplies currently in its reserve to make room. This is a strategy that I suggested that China might use when discussing the trade deal last month. U.S. soybeans are too expensive for private crushers to buy, so China’s state buyer can purchase them, put them into its reserve, and then auction them off for cheaper to the crushers. It had a gap to fill ahead of the arrival of cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies, and this is how it is doing so.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.